It’s not quite a relief rally, but the rout that hammered U.S. stocks yesterday is losing some vigour this morning after Beijing spoke up about its standstill agreement with the United States. A statement from China’s Commerce Ministry acknowledged the 90-day “timetable and road map” that was previously disclosed by the White House and said the recent meeting was “very successful.” Meanwhile, the self-professed “Tariff Man” American president was back at it on Twitter last night, threatening “major Tariffs” on imports from China unless the U.S. reaches a “REAL DEAL” with Beijing.

We’ll continue dissecting U.S.-China trade developments and unease about the yield curve on a day when U.S. markets are closed to honour the passing of George H.W. Bush.

BANK OF CANADA DECISION

Last time we heard from the Bank of Canada, the outlook was largely framed around a new North American trade deal. Today, it’s safe to presume oil will be a dominant storyline, while traders will pick apart any new verbiage about moving toward a “neutral stance” on rates.

Here’s a recap of some of the key economic data that’s been churned out since the last rate decision on Oct. 24.

 

APHRIA VS. SHORTS

Shares of the Leamington, Ont.-based pot producer have lost almost half their value in the last two days after the company was targeted in a short report by Hindenburg Research and Quintessential Capital Management that called into question recently-acquired LATAM assets. Yesterday afternoon, Hindenburg and Quintessential “demanded” Aphria “actually” respond to their allegations. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Aphria told us the company stands by all of its statements, including earlier labelling the short report as “false and defamatory”. We expect to speak with Quintessential’s founder later today.

BUDGET SEASON IN THE OIL PATCH

Canadian Natural Resources is the first of the majors to release a capital plan for the new year in the wake of Alberta’s intervention, setting its 2019 budget at $3.7 billion, which it says is around a billion less than normalized spending. CNRL is pinning the blame for its more conservative strategy on the dearth of new pipelines and a “dysfunctional” nomination process, while pointing out it has the flexibility to add $700 million to the budget if conditions improve. Annual budgets have also been released by Gibson Energy and Calfrac Well Services.

LIVE ON LOCATION

Stay tuned for Catherine Murray's reporting from CIBC’s Toronto trading floor in conjunction with the bank’s annual Miracle Day event. We’re looking forward to a recap of bank earnings season (including the richer dividend and narrow profit beat just announced by National) with Rob Sedran, analysis of the BoC decision with Avery Shenfeld, and unique perspective on the markets with CIBC’s head of investment banking, Roman Dubczak.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

-Roots will be a stock to watch today after the company slashed its full-year sales forecast after reporting a 13.4 per cent drop in third-quarter same-store sales. Roots shares have plummeted 59.7 per cent so far this year.

-Enbridge shut portions of its Mainline system overnight as a result of the storm that knocked out SaskPower (watch for updates here).

-Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley have sent a letter to the prime minister, urging him to revise the agenda for the first ministers’ meeting in Montreal on Friday to allow for a “substantive discussion” on the crisis facing Canada’s energy sector. (https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1069989881106042880)

-Top AGT Food & Ingredients shareholder Letko Brosseau reiterated late yesterday that it will vote against the privatization agreement.

-Home prices were stable across the Greater Toronto Area in November even amid a sharp drop in sales (14.5 per cent y/y). The Toronto Real Estate Board is pointing to the plunge in listings as a sign of renewed competition among buyers.

-Quebec’s public accounts for the 2017-18 fiscal year show the province has marked down the value of its CSeries investment by $170 million.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-Notable earnings: National Bank, Laurentian Bank, Hudson's Bay Co., Roots

-Notable data: ISM U.S. services index

-10:00 a.m. ET: Bank of Canada releases interest rate decision

-2:00 p.m. ET: U.S. Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

-3:00 p.m. ET: B.C. government to announce climate plan

-5:00 p.m. ET: Finance Minister Bill Morneau addresses Senate finance committee

-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting in Vienna

Every morning BNN Bloomberg's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN Bloomberg's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnnbloomberg.ca/subscribe.