Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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Finance Minister Bill Morneau delivers his Fall Economic Statement this afternoon. Three basic questions will frame our coverage:

1. Is Canada on a sustainable fiscal track?

Recall the spring budget pegged the deficit for this fiscal year at $18.1 billion, with no line of sight to balance. Also recall the Liberals campaigned on a plan to balance the books in 2019.

2. Will the government answer Corporate Canada’s calls to bolster competitiveness?

Useful reference: PwC’s report for the Business Council of Canada that warned 635,000 jobs are at risk in this country because of tax changes south of the border.

3. What can the government do to deliver relief to Alberta’s oil sector?

If you missed it, check out Canadian Natural Resources executive vice-chair’s perspective on what’s ailing the industry and why the U.K. and offshore West Africa are better places to invest than Canada. 

BNN Bloomberg's Greg Bonnell will help set the table (check out his primer here); Catherine Murray will guide special coverage from 3:30-5:30 p.m. ET featuring experts and stakeholders including Jack Mintz and W. Brett Wilson; Bloomberg News' Josh Wingrove will bring us the details when he emerges from lockup; and we’ll connect with Bill Morneau at 6:00 p.m. ET before Market Call Tonight takes your calls on North American dividend stocks.

OECD WARNS ON TRADE WAR

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has cut its global growth forecast for next year (3.5 per cent from 3.7 per cent), and is warning GDP could fall close to three per cent in 2020 if the U.S. goes ahead with across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs on imports from China. The OECD also raised its 2019 GDP estimate for Canada to 2.2 per cent (from 2.0 per cent) and estimates growth will decelerate to 1.9 per cent in 2020.

RAIL STOCKS DRAG DOWN TSX

The TSX Composite Index closed below 15,000 yesterday for the first time since Oct. 30, with Canadian National and Canadian Pacific among the biggest drags as both fell more than four per cent. With so much attention focused on tech lately, we’ll pivot the spotlight back to these economic bellwethers.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

-Labour Minister Patty Hajdu is threatening back to work legislation if Canada Post and its union can’t resolve their labour dispute “over the next few days.” 

-U.S. President Donald Trump argued yesterday there’s an economic imperative to staying aligned with Saudi Arabia in spite of the international scandal over the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  

-Mark Zuckerberg balked at the notion of relinquishing the chairmanship of Facebook in an interview with CNN yesterday. He also defended COO Sheryl Sandberg, while admitting Facebook “missed something really important” in the 2016 election meddling. 

-Gap Inc. is still struggling to reinvigorate its flagship brand. Shares are down modestly in pre-market trading after the retailer reported a seven per cent drop in third-quarter same-store sales at its Gap banner.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-Notable earnings: Metro, Deere & Co.

-Notable data: Canadian wholesale trade, U.S. existing home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

-12:00 p.m. ET: Privacy Commissioner Daniel Therrien addresses Senate Committee on National Security and Defence

-1:45 p.m. ET: Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tours Michelin plant in Nova Scotia and holds media avail

-4:00 p.m. ET: Finance Minister Bill Morneau delivers fall economic update

-OECD releases economic outlook

-CMHC’s two-day National Housing Conference begins in Ottawa

Every morning BNN Bloomberg's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN Bloomberg's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnnbloomberg.ca/subscribe.