BNN Bloomberg's mid-morning market update: Aug. 11, 2023
A renewed slide in tech megacaps and mixed economic data left stocks struggling to find direction on Friday. Bond yields rose.
In a choppy trading session, the S&P 500 closed with a small loss. The Nasdaq 100 notched its longest weekly losing streak this year, hovering near 15,000. It last closed below that mark in June. Nvidia Corp. — which has more than tripled in 2023 — extended a four-day decline to almost 10 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a mild gain.
There’s little question the stock market has lost a lot of its upside momentum, according to Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
“As we move closer to the usually volatile September/October timeframe, it does seem like the ‘dippers’ are losing some of their strength,” Maley noted. “This does not mean that the stock market will roll over in a serious manner over the next month or two, but it does raise the odds of a correction in the not-too-distant future.”
Earlier Friday, the U.S. equity benchmark came closer to its 50-day moving average, a technical level that could portend further losses if breached during a market decline. Still, with stocks pressing moderately toward oversold territory on a short-term basis, the path lower wouldn’t be a straight and narrow one, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
That means stocks are soon poised to attempt “another oversold rally effort,” he noted.
EQUITY RISK PREMIUM
Bill Gross, the one-time bond king, said stock and Treasury bulls are wrong as both markets are “overvalued.”
The former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. told Bloomberg Television that the fair value of the 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.5 per cent, compared with the current level of 4.16 per cent.
Early this month, a key market indicator that has been described as possibly the “most important number in finance” tumbled to its lowest since 2004, worrying investors that it was sending a bearish signal. Yet, history shows that despite the extreme move, the typically ominous sign is instead pointing to more gains.
The plunge in the equity risk premium — which measures the difference between the earnings yield on the S&P 500 and the current rate on 10-year Treasury notes — signal stocks are getting overvalued relative to bonds. But a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis found that the gauge is now at a level where returns for the S&P 500 historically averaged in high single digits over a 12-month horizon.
Meantime, Friday’s economic reports did little to alter swap market bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes next month — with traders continuing to expect the central bank will also refrain from claiming victory over inflation.
Consumer inflation expectations as measured by the University of Michigan unexpectedly fell in early August, despite higher gasoline and grocery costs. Meantime, producer prices grew last month by more than expected, primarily due to increases in certain service categories.
Treasuries are on course for a record year of inflows as investors chasing some of the highest yields in months pile into cash and bonds, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
Cash funds attracted US$20.5 billion and investors poured US$6.9 billion into bonds in the week through August 9, they wrote in a note, citing data from EPFR Global. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks had their first outflow in three weeks at US$1.6 billion.
Elsewhere, UK bond yields climbed on data showing the British economy delivered its strongest quarterly growth in more than a year, a surprising show of resilience that will keep pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates further.
Oil posted its longest streak of weekly gains since mid-2022 as multiple reports forecasting increased demand gave a fresh boost to a rally built on increased supply-disruption risks and extended Saudi production cuts.
Some of the main moves in markets:
- The S&P 500 fell 0.1 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7 per cent
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 per cent
- The MSCI World index fell 0.5 per cent
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 per cent
- The euro fell 0.3 per cent to US$1.0947
- The British pound rose 0.2 per cent to US$1.2699
- The Japanese yen fell 0.1 per cent to 144.96 per dollar
- Bitcoin fell 0.2 per cent to US$29,362.46
- Ether fell 0.4 per cent to US$1,842.1
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.17 per cent
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.62 per cent
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 4.53 per cent
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4 per cent to US$83.12 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 0.2 per cent to US$1,945.70 an ounce