(Bloomberg) -- Two tropical systems could spin out of the Atlantic this weekend, including one already threatening heavy rain in Florida and a second still far to the east.

The first system has a 70% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next two days and is threatening Florida’s east coast, including Miami, with as much as 3 inches of rain, gusty winds and severe thunderstorms, the National Weather Service said. Its center is still over Florida, which will limit any strengthening on Saturday.

“In the short term, for the next 12 to 18 hours it will be hard to get further development,” said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

A tropical depression is the weakest system in the family of storms that includes hurricanes.

While hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, the peak of the season is happening now and will continue through early October. Atlantic hurricanes are closely watched because they can disrupt natural gas, oil and agriculture markets, as well as threaten trillions of dollars in real estate both in the U.S. and across the region, including Caribbean islands that depend heavily on tourism.

Oil, Oranges

The Gulf of Mexico region accounts for 16% of U.S. crude oil output and less than 3% of dry natural gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. More than 45% of U.S. refining capacity and 51% of gas processing is along the Gulf coast. Florida is the world’s second-largest producer of orange juice after Brazil.

Pydynowski said the system over Florida will move back over the Atlantic late Saturday where it could gain strength through Monday, moving parallel to the coast before being swept further out to sea. Beaches from Florida to North Carolina could be in for rip currents and pounding surf.

A second system is about 950 miles (1,530 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands, also with a 70% chance of organizing into a stronger storm within 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said. It’ll take several days for the system to near the islands, on the eastern fringe of the Caribbean.

‘Pretty Decent’

“This one looks pretty decent on the satellite,” Pydynowski said. “We will see here in 24 to 48 hours if this system spins up.”

If it does develop, the storm will approach the Caribbean islands by Tuesday, he said. There’s a chance it could weaken once it arrives, though, because of increased wind shear, which will tear at its structure.

Dominica, one of the Windward Islands, suffered catastrophic damage when Hurricane Maria made landfall in September 2017 as a Category 5 storm before going on to strike Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

It’s too early to say if the more-distant storm will become a threat to the U.S. mainland, though Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are on its track and will probably, at the least, get showers and gusty winds.

From late August to early October, storms forming between the Windward Islands and Cabo Verde off the coast of Africa often become the strongest and deadliest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tina Davis at tinadavis@bloomberg.net, Ros Krasny, Steve Geimann

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.