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Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the week:

  • Economists are gaming out how the Omicron variant will hit the global recovery
    • Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists spelled out four possibile scenarios
  • U.S. companies are less convinced than economists and President Joe Biden’s administration that supply-chain pressures are easing and inflation will drop back to more normal levels next year
    • Allianz SE’s Mohamed El-Erian urged the Fed to acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory and “ease your foot off the accelerator starting now”
  • The Black Friday sales saw store traffic surge 48% from last year’s pandemic-hit level, while still remaining below 2019’s footfall
    • Online spending totaled $8.9 billion, which was towards the low end of expectations and below last year’s total, according to a tally from the Adobe Digital Economy Index
    • That number is expected to be exceeded today as Cyber Monday sales are forecast to be between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion
  • Chile’s election has lifted the mood somewhat for bond investors
    • Leftist contender Gabriel Boric is leading the first presidential polls since last week’s vote that set the stage for the country’s most divisive runoff since its return to democracy three decades ago
  • Spanish inflation accelerated to the fastest in nearly three decades in November on rising food prices
    • Spain’s ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos says policy makers should avoid the premature removal of fiscal and monetary stimuli
  • Other ECB officials are also trying to assure citizens a once-in-generation spike in inflation won’t last, and that that the omicron variant isn’t too much of a worry for the economy
    • Yet economic confidence in the euro area slipped in November as consumers struggled with higher prices and worried about resurgent coronavirus infections
    • Bloomberg Economics sees a delay in the first ECB rate hike until the end of 2023
  • Finally, here’s what’s to look out for in the world economy this week

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