(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden responded to North Korea’s most recent missile launch with a pledge to work closely with Japan and South Korea. In a sign of his pessimism about a bigger breakthrough, he held off promising much more.
The launch -- the first time North Korea has fired a missile over Japan in five years -- was a unwelcome development for a president whose hands are full with the Ukraine war, the November midterm elections and sky-high inflation. His understated response was in keeping with North Korea strategy throughout his presidency: The US is happy to talk but isn’t going to make North Korea a policy priority.
So far, North Korea hasn’t shown any interest in engaging, and Biden has appeared content to focus elsewhere. There has been no mention of the recent tests in North Korea’s state media, adding to the uncertainty about its intentions.
“There’s a danger of losing attention on the main thing, which is rightfully so Russia and China, and I don’t think the Biden administration appears to be taking the bait,” said Tom Karako, senior fellow and director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Karako said that the best thing Asia-Pacific countries and the US can do to deter North Korea is strengthen missile-defense capabilities, “so we don’t have to go from zero to 10 every time North Korea rattles its chain.”
Biden’s response has come straight out of a traditional foreign policy playbook. It’s a turnaround from the provocative hot-and-cold approach of his predecessor Donald Trump, who went from threatening “fire and fury” to two meetings with dictator Kim Jong Un and exchanges of personal letters.
Biden spoke Tuesday with Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida “to reinforce our ironclad commitment to Japan’s defense,” the White House said in a statement. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a similar round of calls to underscore US unity with Japan and South Korea.
The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group was redployed to waters between South Korea and Japan, after making a visit to the South Korean port of Busan for joint military exercises from late September, Yonhap News Agency reported, citing military officials. Japan, South Korea and the US are set for more joint military drills on Thursday, South Korean broadcaster SBS reported.
The administration eschewed pledges for an ambitious policy rethink or any major new initiatives. It continued to focus on limiting North Korea’s ability to enhance its nuclear program -- despite Kim’s determination to shrug off an array of tough economic sanctions already in place. Still, the White House may respond with additional sanctions, according to an administration official who requested anonymity to discuss internal thinking.
The pared-down approach is also a recognition of reality. With the United Nations Security Council deeply divided and Russia standing in the way, chances are low that world powers could reach any consensus on tangible action in response to Kim’s latest launch.
“It’s just that we don’t have a satisfactory way for the US and South Korea to respond right now,” said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who’s director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program in Washington. “You’re only able to respond in a very limited way because the rest of the world is also distracted: There’s a war in Ukraine and everything else. So the geopolitical environment is actually favorable for North Korea, for Kim Jong Un.”
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reaffirmed Tuesday that US officials were willing to meet with North Korean representatives without preconditions, but that Pyongyang hasn’t responded to its outreach.
“Our goal remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” she told reporters. “We remain prepared to engage in serious and sustained diplomacy to make tangible progress towards that end.”
In one tangible response, she said US military forces conducted separate, joint military exercises with Japan and South Korea following the launch.
Last week, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles hours after US Vice President Kamala Harris toured the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.
Bush, Obama
North Korea is a challenge that has confronted every president for decades, with similar results regardless of approach. George W. Bush labeled it part of the Axis of Evil along with Iran and Iraq, but he helped launch so-called six-party talks aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program.
Barack Obama adopted an approach of “strategic patience.”
Trump’s fascination with Kim and their relationship may have continued even after he left the White House. He has told people at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida that he’s maintained contact with the North Korean leader, according to a forthcoming book by New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman.
Correspondence between Trump and Kim are among the missing documents the Justice Department is investigating after the FBI seized dozens of boxes in a search of Trump’s Florida estate, some of which contained documents marked as classified.
None of those varied presidential strategies resulted in the ultimate US objective -- to get rid of North Korea’s nuclear program. Biden’s approach has been a reversion to a more cautious, less ambitious strategy that amounts to expressing a willingness to talk but otherwise staying united with allies Japan and South Korea above anything else.
Regardless of his intentions, the latest launch could force Biden to pay closer attention to North Korea and Kim’s provocations.
“The North Koreans like to test, and they test you by these maybe incremental, sometimes large, leaps like missile launches to see how you respond,” said David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Trump administration. “If the response is kind of a muted, talking yourself out of anything significant in response, then that green lights further bad behavior.”
(Updates with North Korean media and report on military drills. An earlier version corrected the spelling of Kim Jong Un’s name, in sixth paragraph.)
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
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