(Bloomberg) --

This year’s proxy season is shaping up to be a real doozy.

The number of proposals will likely match or exceed last year’s record before shareholder voting officially kicks into high gear come April. Many will focus on environmental, social and governance issues such as the climate crisis, big tech disinformation and fair pay and worker rights. 

But there are also more “anti-ESG” resolutions, which observers say shouldn’t be surprising given how the far-right has sought to politicize sustainability strategies. In the end, however, the success of the resolutions depends in large part on how big investors like BlackRock Inc. (a prime target of ESG opponents) and Rockefeller Asset Management (RAM) vote their shares.

Both financial giants have published their lists of “engagement priorities” for 2023. At BlackRock, the firm says its main area of focus is ensuring corporate boards have independent directors who can be “the voice of shareholders” in board discussions on topics ranging from climate-related risks to long-term business strategies. Rockefeller singles out biodiversity, climate action and human rights among its key themes to watch.

Most of this year’s shareholder proposals fall into “three major buckets: climate change, corporate political influence and social policy that includes diversity and human rights,” said Heidi Welsh, executive director of the Sustainable Investments Institute, a research group that closely tracks social and environmental shareholder resolutions.

On the anti-ESG side, the proposals are all about “the culture wars,” Welsh said. Those proposals largely attack anti-discrimination policies, she said.

“None of the anti-ESG ideas have ever gotten much support from mainstream investors or companies,” Welsh said. “Their investment horizons look beyond the next election cycle.”

Overall, the number of shareholder submissions has been increasing since late 2021, when the Securities and Exchange Commission made it easier for almost anyone to put forward a proposal.

New York-based BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, and Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink have long touted the firm as a champion of ESG principles despite continuing to be a major financial backer of the fossil-fuel industry. But last year, BlackRock voted for fewer proposals addressing environmental and social issues than it did in 2021, said Rob Du Boff, senior ESG analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

BlackRock’s view was that most of those resolutions were either “too prescriptive” or targeted companies that, according to the firm, were already making significant progress on the issues in question, Du Boff said.

Rockefeller Asset Management is notable because the Rockefeller heirs, through their various investment vehicles and foundations, have long been advocates for addressing the climate crisis and similar responsible-investing issues.

RAM is a division of Rockefeller Capital Management, which traces its roots to 1882 when the firm served as the family office of John D. Rockefeller. Today, Rockefeller Capital Management oversees roughly $98 billion across its three business groups.

The Conference Board predicted last month that this proxy season will likely be more challenging than previous years. The nonprofit says there will be more proposals from shareholders “making an ideological point as opposed to seeking change at a company.”

Beyond anti-ESG proposals, the group said it’s likely support for environmental and social resolutions will continue to drop. Such requests are often “less relevant to the company’s business or reflect overreach by the proponent,” the group said.

Overall, the Conference Board expects to see more climate-related proposals that focus on biodiversity, plastic pollution and deforestation. On social topics, expect to see proposals focusing on corporate political spending through third-party groups and on workers’ rights, particularly at companies where “there is a perceived disconnect between the company’s commitments and actions on freedom of association.”

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