(Bloomberg) -- President Jair Bolsonaro’s influence in Brazilian politics will remain strong for the foreseeable future regardless of the result of the country’s Oct. 30 runoff after many of his allies won key congress and local government races.
Right-wing and centrist parties that support the president now account for around 60% of the lower house and Bolsonaro also got several former members of his cabinet elected to the senate. That guarantees him great influence in congress after a stronger-than-expected performance on Brazil’s general election Sunday.
Even if his leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, wins the runoff, the firebrand president and his movement known as Bolsonarismo could make it hard for the next government to approve reforms or appoint members of Brazil’s powerful Supreme Court. Brazilian assets rallied on Monday morning on the assumption that in case of winning, Lula will pivot toward the center and prioritize business-friendly policies.
While Lula is still likely to win the election, the results in congress give Bolsonaro the ability to advance conservative proposals and block Lula’s progressive social agenda in both chambers, according to Flavia Biroli, a political scientist with the University of Brasilia.
“The president’s agenda got more resources and visibility,” she said.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
“Jair Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected performance in Sunday’s election may lead the Brazilian president to tone down his rhetoric and his competitor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, to adopt a more pro-market agenda in order to woo moderate voters ahead of the second-round vote. Markets will likely welcome the shifts.”
-- Adriana Dupita, Latin America economist
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In the lower house, the Liberal Party that supports Bolsonaro now has the largest number of lawmakers after adding 19 new legislators, according to preliminary data from Superior Electoral Court. Although PL, as the party is known, traditionally supports whoever runs the country, many of its members who got seats on Sunday’s election are ideologically aligned with the president.
Bolsonaro, 67, also benefited from a strong showing in local elections, with his allies winning outright eight of 27 states including Rio de Janeiro, with six others still at play in a second round including Sao Paulo, the richest in the country, where one of his closest advisers lead results. Controlling some of Brazil’s top states will give a boost to the president as he plots his campaign to challenge Lula in the second round.
In total, Bolsonaro got over 51 million votes on Sunday, or 43% of valid votes compared to Lula’s 48%. His three sons remain legislators, with Flavio Bolsonaro being federal senator and Carlos Bolsonaro a council representative in Rio. And even if Eduardo Bolsonaro got less than half of the votes that he received in 2018, he was still re-elected as a lawmaker for Sao Paulo in the lower house.
(Updates with analyst comments from fourth paragraph.)
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