(Bloomberg) -- As Boris Johnson clings to power in the wake of a flurry of cabinet resignations, betting firms are readying themselves for the likely race to succeed the scandal-ridden prime minister.
British newspaper front pages on Wednesday described Johnson’s reign as “on the brink” and “hanging by a thread.” Online betting markets suggest the prime minister will be replaced in 2022, with Paddy Power Plc only paying out £1 ($1.20) for every £10 placed on Johnson’s departure before the end of the year.
Following his resignation as chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak remains joint favorite to succeed Johnson as leader of the Conservatives. Sky Bet will pay out £4 for every £1 placed on either Sunak or Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt to be the next Tory leader. Mordaunt is viewed in the party as having strong pro-Brexit credentials, charisma and good leadership qualities.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, and new Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi make up the rest of Sky Bet’s top five contenders to replace Johnson. Outsiders for the job include former Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Tory politician Tom Tugendhat, both on the market at odds of 11/1.
Despite mounting speculation of a general election this year, bookies suggest one is unlikely to happen until at least 2023.
Here Are The Conservatives Who May Vie to Replace Boris Johnson
Odds from betting on politics should be taken with a large pinch of salt. In markets terms, they reflect the views of retail investors, rather than professionals who spend their lives analysing these things. Still, they are strong indicator that Johnson’s position is unstable, and that senior Tories could be poised to throw their hats into the ring if the prime minister is ousted.
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