(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Johnson has promised Britain will leave in October “do or die,” but the top PM contender may have overlooked the impact Parliament can have on his plans.

What’s Happening?

Tory leadership hopefuls Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have started putting flesh on the bones of their Brexit plans, and discussions about a no-deal exit are taking center stage.

Still, as Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton writes, there’s nothing like a majority for that strategy in Parliament, despite Johnson’s claims that lawmakers are ready to support leaving the European Union without an agreement. Crunching the numbers shows that at most, only 304 members would vote for a no-deal divorce. That’s well short of the 318 needed to secure such a path, raising the prospect that a future prime minister might have to sideline or ignore Parliament.

For now though, Johnson and Hunt are more concerned with each other, and Tuesday saw both men lay out their Brexit plans in more detail.

After being plagued with accusations of dodging scrutiny during his campaign, Johnson hit the airwaves in force yesterday, using radio interviews to set out a plan A, B and C for taking Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31. None of his suggestions were new, and all come with problems attached:

  • Plan A is to get a “new” withdrawal agreement that strips out the Irish backstop. The EU has rejected this.
  • Plan B is to get a standstill agreement—using an arcane bit of trade regulation known as Article 24 of the GATT—so trade continues unhindered. The EU also has rejected this and the World Trade Organization says that article isn’t applicable.
  • Plan C is a no-deal Brexit, which members of his own party are plotting to block.

Either way, he told Talk Radio that under his leadership the U.K. will leave on Oct. 31, "do or die, come what may.” Johnson, who yesterday hired former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith as his campaign chief, later published an open letter to Hunt, asking him to make a similar pledge. His rival responded with an admonishment of his own, asking Johnson to debate him face-to-face.

Later, Hunt said in an interview with BBC News that the key for his strategy was to show the EU he can secure the backing of British lawmakers. He added that that meant sending a more diverse negotiating team to Brussels—even though the bloc has refused to reopen departing Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal. He also rejected demands from Johnson that he commit to leaving the EU on Oct. 31, calling it a “fake deadline” that risks an early election. Still, he also signaled he too would be prepared to leave the bloc without an agreement  if there was no prospect of a better accord.

Today’s Must-Reads

  • Confused about Article 24? Bloomberg’s Emma Ross-Thomas explains the arcane trade regulation here, including why it may not be the soft landing Johnson makes out.
  • Nearly 60 percent of Conservative members think the new prime minister should be prepared to leave without a deal in October if Brexit negotiations fail, according to a YouGov poll, while 24 percent think he shouldn’t bother with more talks but head straight for a no-deal split.
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is facing anger from even his most loyal allies after again pushing back his decision on firming up the party’s policy on a second referendum, according to the Huffington Post.

Brexit in Brief

#BoJoNoShow | Jeremy Hunt took questions from members of the public on Twitter yesterday after plans for a televised debate were scuppered by Johnson. You can see all his answers, gifs and pizza pictures here.

Heading for Disaster? | A former head of the civil service has warned that Johnson’s negotiating strategy is an “opportunity for disaster,” according to the Independent.

Crashing to a Halt | Britain’s automotive industry stands to lose 50,000 pounds ($63,750) a minute should the country crash out of the EU without an agreement, because friction at the border will leave plants starved of parts, the U.K.’s car lobby said Tuesday.

Irish Cost | A no-deal Brexit could cost Ireland as many as 85,000 jobs and leave economic growth flat next year, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe warned yesterday.

Boris Buses | Johnson, who is inextricably linked with the infamous Brexit bus during the 2016 campaign, unveiled an unusual hobby during his broadcast round yesterday. He told Talk Radio he likes to relax by making model buses out of old wine crates and painting on the happy passengers sitting within them.

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To contact the author of this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anne Swardson at aswardson@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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