(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s emissions likely declined slightly in 2023 as the electricity sector continued to decarbonize, helping offset increases from oil and gas production and rising domestic airline travel.
Overall emissions are estimated to have fallen to 702 megatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent, a 0.8% drop from a year earlier, according to estimates from The Canadian Climate Institute. Emissions from electricity dropped by 2.9 megatons while oil and gas production saw an increase of 2.2 megatons.
While Canada has made strides in reducing its reliance on coal, the trend has led to an increase in emissions in other areas, Seton Stiebert, a consultant for the institute’s 440 Megatonnes project, said on a call with reporters.
“We’ve gotten rid of a lot of coal, the most emission-intensive fuel in our economy, but a lot of that is simply a switch to natural gas, to another fossil fuel, and the actual penetration of biofuels and electricity, electrification of the economy looks muted in the data,” Stiebert said.
Emissions from transportation increased, driven by air travel’s continued rebound after the pandemic, while those from passenger road travel were almost flat even as car sales in Canada increased. That points to policy and new technologies working to reduce emissions, Dave Sawyer, principal economist at The Canadian Climate Institute, said on the call with reporters.
The 6.2% year-over-year decline from the electricity sector offers an example of what progress can look like, he said.
“We’re continuing to decarbonize the sector through a mix available technology and really focused federal, provincial and territorial policy, but other sectors need to pick up the pace if we’re to hit our targets,” Sawyer said.
Canada aims to bring emissions in 2030 down to 40% below the levels in 2005. Based on the 2023 emissions estimates, the country is currently 7.8% below 2005 levels.
Buildings, another significant source of carbon, saw a decline in emissions last year, largely attributed to warmer-than-normal weather caused by an El Nino weather pattern that reduced heating needs.
The official emissions inventory for Canada is expected to be released by the federal government in 2025. The Canadian Climate Institute, a policy organization funded in part by the country’s environment department, releases early estimates to track progress toward emissions targets in a timely manner.
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