Silver prices have struggled since tumbling dramatically in January and then slumping again at the start of the Iran war, but technical analysis suggests they might be on the mend.
Silver has stabilized since its tailspin took it to a three-month low of US$60.94 per ounce in March - down about 50 per cent from its all-time high of $121.64 struck on Jan. 29.
Over the last six weeks, silver has risen back above two key technical analysis levels, called downtrend lines. Downtrend lines are diagonal lines connecting highs and are used to define a trend. Rising above a downtrend line indicates weakening of a downward trend.
The most recent break of a downtrend line occurred on Wednesday and was part of a three-day surge that pushed silver up almost to April’s high of $83.04. Past highs and lows are significant milestones in technical analysis - particularly monthly - and the $82 to $83 area has been a stopping point for silver in recent months.
Surpassing the April peak on a sustainable basis would indicate that silver has secured a foothold in a higher range and increase market expectations that it could climb to $90, which is considered an important psychological level since it is a big round number, and then possibly to the March high of $96.38.
Breaking above the April high would also end the string of lower highs that has characterized the price trend in silver since the January tumble. Lower highs are considered a negative trend in technical analysis.
However, if silver fails to surpass April’s peak, it would reinforce the trend of lower highs and could lead market participants to expect more losses, particularly if it were to fall below the area around $70.00 to $71.00.
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Burton Frierson and Matthew Lewis)
