The head of Canada’s aluminum industry says the U.S. midterm election results could mark a turning point in the trade dispute between Canada and the United States.
Jean Simard, president and chief executive of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said Wednesday the election sent a clear message that American voters are frustrated with the economic impact of U.S. trade policies.
The results could increase pressure on Washington to roll back tariffs, he said.
Canada produces roughly 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually, exporting about 90 per cent of its output, according to Simard.
The vast majority of those exports historically went to the United States, but U.S. tariffs of 50 per cent have prompted Canadian producers to redirect shipments to Europe, he said.
Simard said he hopes the election results embolden lawmakers to challenge U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and create new momentum for an agreement with Canada.
“I’m certainly far more optimistic than I’ve ever been, because the signal is overwhelmingly clearer than I thought it would be,” he said.
Meanwhile, in a post on X, Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly said he hopes the election results will push Washington toward a lasting trade deal with Canada.
He said the results show the trade dispute has worsened affordability concerns in border states and the Midwest. Kelly added that 87 per cent of Canadian small businesses want an agreement reached as quickly as possible.
But Andreas Schotter, a professor of international business at Western University’s Ivey Business School, said Canadian companies should not expect a dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy.
“Even on the Democratic side, there’s a strong ‘America First’ notion,” he said. “For businesses, there’s no immediate change … I don’t see us all of a sudden going back to full CUSMA.”
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement replaced NAFTA in 2020.
Schotter pointed out U.S. President Joe Biden left most of the trade policies introduced during Trump’s first term in place.
The first Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10 per cent on aluminum imports in 2018. Canada was initially exempt but faced the tariffs from June 2018 until May 2019, when the exemption was restored.
Trump briefly reimposed tariffs on certain Canadian aluminum products in 2020, but the exemption was restored before Biden took office.
That changed when Trump returned to the White House. The U.S. imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on Canadian aluminum in March 2025 before doubling them to 50 per cent on June 4, 2025.
Simard said Canada’s three major primary aluminum producers — Rio Tinto, Alcoa and Aluminerie Alouette — initially continued fulfilling orders to American customers despite the tariffs before redirecting shipments to Europe.
He said Canadian producers have exported roughly 800,000 tonnes of aluminum to Europe since March 2025, compared with about 100,000 tonnes over a comparable period under normal market conditions.
Simard said the strategy has allowed the industry to maintain production without layoffs or production cuts.
Blair Dickerson, president and chief executive of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, said a change in the political landscape in Washington doesn’t guarantee an immediate change in U.S. trade policy.
Still, she said the steel industry is encouraged by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent comments that Canada-U.S. trade talks are progressing, and that the government remains focused on getting a good deal for all Canadians.
“Our priority remains clear,” Dickerson said. “We need a fair and predictable trading relationship so that the Canadian steel sector can compete and grow.”
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Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2026.
