(Bloomberg) -- US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are two of the most unpopular candidates to have ever run for president, and they are doing so at a time when the electorate is politically split in a way not seen since at least the 1960s. But even with the seething tribalism, the choice by Americans this time—as with most every election and regardless of who runs—will likely turn on how they view the contents of their wallet.
In the Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary How Swing State “Misery” Will Decide the US Election, we drill down to the economic calculus that matters most: the seven American states where the winner in November is currently less than certain. They’re called swing states, and it turns out they have an economy all their own.
Nationally, the US economy is in very good shape, with Biden presiding over a country that burst out of the pandemic recession and never stopped running, with months of historically low unemployment, rising wages and a soft landing now coming into sight. But oh, the inflation. While it has retreated from post-pandemic highs and is headed toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it’s not quite there yet. And what’s more, if the polls are to be believed, voters are much more negative about Biden’s economic record than all the other good indicators would seem to warrant. So what’s going on here?
Bloomberg Economics sought to find out why voters are reacting this way. Their attitudes aren’t just based on how things are now, but how painful things have been since the pandemic upended the economy and their lives. It’s a new take on the famous “Misery Index,” and it shows that the economic pain Americans have suffered in recent years is still very much top-of-mind.
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