(Bloomberg) -- In one of the worst political calculations in American history, President Joe Biden bet an early debate with Donald Trump would boost his election odds. It backfired spectacularly, crystallizing concerns over his age and acuity and immediately throwing his final campaign into crisis.
These are the highlights of the 25 days spanning the debate and the historic end to his reelection bid:
Day 1 - Thursday, June 27
Doubts emerge immediately over his viability as a candidate as more than 50 million viewers watch Biden stumble through a startlingly bad 90-minute, prime-time debate against Trump.
- Before the first commercial break, Biden aides are emailing reporters and surrogates that he has a cold. One Democratic lawmaker shortly after the debate, speaking on condition of anonymity, says the party must have a conversation about replacing him on the ballot.
Day 2 - Friday, June 28
Calls for Biden to drop out intensify, including by the New York Times editorial board, but his aides insist that’s not on the table.
- Conversations about the campaign’s future begin among party leadership and Biden’s inner circle. They include senior aides at the White House such as Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, as well as top congressional Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Representative Jim Clyburn, the South Carolina lawmaker who helped save Biden’s 2020 campaign.
Day 4 - Sunday, June 30
The Biden camp goes on offense, with surrogates flooding the Sunday Washington talk shows in hopes of staunching the bleeding.
- Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose support would later wane, says on CNN that the president shouldn’t be judged by one debate. Clyburn says on CNN’s State of the Union that Biden must show “his capacity to lead the country.”
- The first signs emerge that the public mood has shifted quickly against Biden: CBS News releases a post-debate poll of registered voters showing just 27% believe the president has the mental and cognitive health to serve, compared with 35% in early June.
Day 6 - Tuesday, July 2
Democratic defections begin, with Texas Representative Lloyd Doggett the first member of Congress to call on Biden to withdraw from the race.
- A leaked memo from a pollster for a leading Democratic political action committee shows Biden’s favorability numbers plummeted after the debate in “the largest single-week drop” in nearly three years.
- Former President Barack Obama, who had earlier defended Biden’s bid and compared the poor debate performance to one of his own as an incumbent running for reelection, privately conveyed to allies that Biden’s path to reelection is now more challenging, the Washington Post reports.
Day 7 - Wednesday, July 3
More unease among congressional Democrats spills into the public, with members calling on leadership to intervene, while Biden tells a hastily arranged meeting of about 20 Democratic governors he’s still intent on running.
- Democrats running for reelection in traditionally safe blue districts start circulating a letter demanding that Biden withdraw from the race.
- Biden holds a call with campaign staff, alongside Vice President Kamala Harris, to calm the crew: “I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win because when Democrats unite, we will always win.”
- But privately, the New York Times reports, Biden has conceded to key allies he might need to drop out of the race if he can’t salvage his candidacy within days. High-ranking House Democrats also meet in the evening to discuss Biden’s political future, with some urging Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries to advise him to withdraw.
Day 9 - Friday, July 5
The first week of the crisis concludes with Biden digging in on ABC News, using his first prime-time interview since the debate to insist he’s running and that only the “Lord Almighty” could stop him. He denies that he’s behind Trump in the polls.
- During a rally in the battleground state of Wisconsin earlier in the day, he says: “Let me say it as clearly as I can. I’m staying in the race.”
Day 12 - Monday, July 8
With Congress back from break, Biden tries to fight back against his own party, doubling down in a defiant two-page letter to Democrats.
- “I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump,” he writes. “The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end.”
- The president chalks up the discord to a frenzy driven by the news media and wealthy supporters, saying they were ignoring a primary process that elected him the Democratic nominee.
Day 14 - Wednesday, July 10
Signs of serious doubts among the party leadership emerge as Pelosi, during an appearance on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, dodges an opportunity to offer her endorsement.
- “It’s up to the president to decide if he’s going to run,” Pelosi says. “We are all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short.”
- Peter Welch of Vermont becomes the first senator to publicly call on Biden to step down, joining nine House members. Meanwhile, George Clooney, who just weeks ago co-hosted a fundraiser for him, also says Biden should step aside, writing, “we are not going to win in November with this president.”
Day 15 - Thursday, July 11
All eyes turn to Biden’s post-NATO press conference — his first lengthy Q&A in over a year — amid reports congressional leaders are signaling their interest in him dropping out.
- Biden immediately flubs, referring to Harris as Trump in his first answer after having mixed up the Ukrainian and Russian presidents in a summit event before the presser.
- Biden ends the press conference responding to whether he would reconsider his decision to stay in the race. “No, unless they came back and said, ‘There’s no way you can win,’” he said. “No one is saying that. No poll says that.”
- That evening, Jeffries meets Biden at the White House and tells him that his candidacy imperils control of Congress, ABC News and the Washington Post would later report.
- Reports emerge from Axios that Schumer is open to replacing Biden as the Democrats’ nominee and is privately signaling his concern to donors.
Day 17 - Saturday, July 13
The extraordinarily close-call assassination attempt on Trump thrusts the campaign into further crisis, putting Biden on the defensive and boosting the former president’s support.
- Earlier that afternoon, Schumer visits Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, and privately tells him that it would be best if he drops out of the race, according to later reports by ABC News and the Washington Post.
- Ohio Senator JD Vance — who would days later be Trump’s pick for his running mate — directly blames Biden for the attack, writing on X that the Biden campaign’s rhetoric “led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”
- Biden returns from Delaware to the White House, where he would address the nation from the Oval Office the next night, calling for a cooling of divisive rhetoric. The campaign cancels some television ads and events.
Day 21 - Wednesday, July 17
Pressure mounts again on Biden after the brief pause over the shock of the Trump shooting.
- The White House reports Biden has been diagnosed with Covid-19, cutting short a trip to Las Vegas and forcing him to cancel an appearance before a key Latino advocacy group, while also preventing him from counter-programming the Republican National Convention.
- Democrats decide not to hold a virtual roll call to formally nominate Biden until at least August, after an outcry from some who believed the process was being rushed at his behest to head off calls for him to stand aside.
- More than a dozen Democratic donors express a deepened sense of gloom after the Trump shooting. Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, a co-chair of Biden’s reelection campaign, tells the president in Las Vegas that patience from donors is wearing thin, Semafor reports.
Day 23 - Friday, July 19
A day after a Bloomberg News report shows some members of Biden’s cabinet have had private discussions among themselves about his increasingly dim electoral prospects, Biden gives still no public sign he might drop out.
- Campaign chairwoman Jennifer O’Malley Dillon says on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that “absolutely, the president is in this race,” and Biden announces he’ll hit the campaign trail again next week.
- Minutes after her appearance, the network reports Biden’s family has started discussing his exit plan from the race — which White House spokesman Andrew Bates says is simply “wrong.”
Day 24 - Saturday, July 20
At his house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, Biden and his closest family members are approaching the momentous decision, alongside others of the president’s inner circle including Ricchetti, Donilon, Annie Tomasini and Anthony Bernal. By evening’s end, Biden is beginning to consider dropping out, but the campaign is told to proceed full steam ahead.
Day 25 - Sunday, July 21
With the decision made by morning, Biden places calls to Harris, White House chief of staff Jeff Zients, and O’Malley Dillon with the heads-up and drafts an announcement letter with his team in Rehoboth Beach.
At 1:45 p.m., Biden convenes a call with senior White House and campaign officals - including many who were learning of the decision for the first time. A minute later, the letter declaring his intent to drop out of the race is posted to social media: “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.”
Less than a half-hour later, Biden releases another post endorsing Harris.
Listen to The Big Take on iHeart, Appleand Spotify. Read the transcript.
--With assistance from Jennifer Jacobs.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
