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JPMorgan Expects Brazil to Start Raising Rates in September

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A JPMorgan Chase & Co. building in New York, US, on Friday, July 7, 2023. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan became the latest major Wall Street bank to bet Brazil will start raising interest rates in September, saying it sees the benchmark Selic ending at 11.5% early next year.

The bank now prices in a quarter-point hike next month and three additional increases of the same magnitude over the next few months. The benchmark Selic currently stands at 10.5%. 

Other banks including Wells Fargo and major asset managers such as XP Investimentos and Legacy also forecast monetary tightening cycle beginning in September. Policymakers led by Roberto Campos Neto have said they remain data-dependent, though “all options” are on the table, including a hike. 

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