(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s analysts are predicting a negative turn in the business climate in the next six months in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
The latest survey from the Banco de Mexico, the country’s central bank, shows 79% of private-sector consultants and economic analysts surveyed in late November predicted that the climate would get worse. That’s up from 72% in October, suggesting a slow slide into pessimism for Mexico watchers.
On the heels of the election of Donald Trump to the White House, companies that have considered moving to the country — in many cases to be closer to US consumers — face newfound uncertainty. President Claudia Sheinbaum has said she’ll reach a deal to avoid US tariffs on Mexico exports.
Faith that now’s a good time to invest in Mexico has plunged since early this year. In March, 46% of those surveyed thought it was a good time to invest — amid the hype over the “nearshoring” phenomenon and ahead of elections in the US and Mexico — but that number has fallen to 8%.
The economy has also shown an economic slowdown, with the median prediction in the Banco de Mexico survey suggesting that gross domestic product would grow 1.53% in 2024 and only 1.2% in 2025. The currency is also expected to end this year at 20.29 per dollar, far weaker than at the year’s start.
Banco de Mexico carried out the survey between Nov. 22 and 28 with a group of 40 analysts.
--With assistance from Rafael Gayol.
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