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Romania Is Out to Prove Its Election Was Worth Cancelling

Calin Georgescu in Mogosoaia, Romania, on Dec. 8. Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images (Andrei Pungovschi/Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/)

(Bloomberg) -- Romanian authorities raced to piece together how a little-known pro-Russian candidate won the first round of a presidential election that’s now been annulled as they carried out a crackdown of surging extremist forces. 

Police in recent days have raided the homes of supporters of Calin Georgescu, the fringe independent who scored a shock victory on Nov. 24. They’ve detained a businessman in possession of $7 million in cryptocurrencies and halted a group of armed mercenaries from allegedly provoking unrest in Bucharest as media sift through allegations of their links to the candidate. 

Georgescu blindsided Romania’s political establishment after a TikTok-driven social-media campaign propelled him from obscurity and prompted accusations of Kremlin interference. The top court’s decision to scrap the presidential contest and order a repeat have compounded the chaos, with Romania’s ruling parties grappling with what to do next. 

Late on Monday, Georgescu struggled to explain his ties with the mercenary group’s leader, a former member of the French Foreign Legion, Horatiu Potra, after pictures emerged of the two men meeting. After initially denying that he knew Potra, he conceded that the two had had contact — but not recently. 

Judges on Tuesday imposed restrictions on Potra’s travel and ordered him to check in with police, though stopped short of detaining him. He’s being investigated for weapons possession and certain social media posts, Potra’s lawyer, Serban Moga, said. 

Romanian Grievances

Authorities in Bucharest untangling a web of Georgescu’s connections now say there’s evidence for incitement to violence, voter manipulation and illegal campaign financing. The investigation remains open, but sufficient clues could create grounds to exclude Georgescu from a repeat of the presidential contest, according to some analysts and former judges. 

Such a move could send Romania into uncharted territory. Aside from the legality of Georgescu’s campaign, his victory was also fueled by deep-seated grievance among the nation’s voters over corruption, inflation and culture war issues. 

Georgescu’s potential removal from the race wouldn’t be a first. The top court barred another far-right politician, Diana Sosoaca, from the presidential ballot. That ruling sparked controversy and resulted in the break-up of the ruling coalition shortly before back-to-back elections, including the parliamentary vote on Dec. 1. 

While senior officials have called Georgescu’s election win a national security risk abetted by Moscow, an open question remains how much the investigations will justify the court’s drastic moves in the eyes of Romanians. His victory lays bare a deep distrust in institutions. 

The wide publicity given to prosecutors’ efforts is likely an attempt by authorities to rebuild public trust as they seek to emphasize the need for canceling the election, according to Sergiu Miscoiu, a professor at Babes Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca. 

Romania has undergone the “biggest institutional crisis in recent history,” with Georgescu’s victory showing how vulnerable the country is to destabilization attempts, Miscoiu said in a phone interview. 

“The biggest mistake, though, would be to get some partial answers and then get back to business as usual,” he said.

‘Digital Coup’

So far, Friday’s court ruling hasn’t sparked mass protests, a contrast with thousands of Romanians who took to the streets to support Romania’s pro-Western course after the first-round result. For political scientist Claudiu Craciun, who called the election upset a “digital coup,” it reflects the nature of the vote, which was motivated mainly by a more passive anti-elite sentiment. 

“They’re angry and loud online, but coming onto the streets requires trust, which they don’t have,” said Craciun, a lecturer at the National School of Politial Science in Bucharest. 

Even the country’s powerful Orthodox Church issued a rare appeal to priests and churchgoers to avoid political activity “contrary to the law and social peace.” Several church officials previously expressed their support for Georgescu. 

For now, the rise of a candidate who cuts a messianic pose as he peddles conspiracy theories has delivered a jolt to Romania’s main parties — and given way to a realignment that includes the resignation of party leaders and new coalitions aimed at keeping the far-right at bay. Pro-European parties started talks on Monday and will have a first joint meeting on Tuesday. 

With the Constitutional Court ordering a re-do from scratch, a new presidential election is unlikely before March or April next year after the new government is in place. 

Romania’s establishment will now be eager to demonstrate that they understood the prevailing mood and bring in new faces, Miscoiu said.  

Georgescu, who has denied any ties to Russia, said he’ll challenge the court’s decision, which he called a “sham” and a “coup.” On Sunday, when the presidential runoff had been scheduled to take place, he visited an abandoned polling station near the capital with a small group of supporters. 

“The Romanian people do not give in,” he said, making reference to his “pact with God.”

Even if he disappears from public life as quickly as he entered it, Miscoiu said, “the wave that propelled Georgescu didn’t just disappear — and it’s unlikely it will in a few months.”

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