Here are five things you need to know this morning
Trump talks tariffs: Ahead of his meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, U.S. President Donald Trump is indicating that he remains committed to realigning global trade and taking business from Canada through his tariff regime. “I guess he’s going to ask about tariffs,” Trump said when asked about the upcoming meeting with Carney. “Because a lot of companies from Canada are moving into the United States, you know, everybody’s moving back into the U.S., and he’s probably going to be asking about tariffs. They’re losing a lot of companies in Canada.” Canadian officials have been downplaying expectations of a major breakthrough on trade at today’s meeting, while indicating steel tariffs will be a major point of focus.
Canada’s tariff scenarios: The U.S. trade war has already hit the Canadian economy, but the tariff path ahead could still lead to anything from modestly slower growth to a recession, a new report says. Looking at three possible tariff paths, the report by BMO says that even the more optimistic scenario of tariffs staying at the roughly seven per cent level could mean a 1.5 per cent drop in long-term GDP, compared with the outlook at the start of the year. A worst-case scenario with a 35 per cent tariff across the board could mean a moderate recession in the short-term and five per cent shaved off long-term economic growth, while a middle scenario of tariffs averaging 15 per cent could mean significantly slower growth in the near-term and 2.5 per cent cut to growth. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says the most likely path seems to be a continuation of current tariff rates. “We call it the ‘muddle through’ scenario,” Porter said. “We do believe that something close to the average tariff on Canada is about what we’re going to be left with.”
Movement on U.S. government shutdown: With the U.S. government shutdown closing in on the one week mark, President Trump is showing willingness to make a deal. Trump said he was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies on Monday to bring an end to the funding stalemate, at one point suggesting those talks had already begun. The remarks appeared to mark a shift after days of Republicans maintaining they’d only consider a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies after Democrats first passed legislation to fund the government.
U.S. takes stake in Vancouver miner: The U.S. government is taking a 10 per cent stake in Canadian minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a US$35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska. In an announcement Monday, Trump said the White House is reversing a Biden-era decision to reject Ambler Road, a project to help access vast critical mineral deposits in Alaska’s Northern Brooks Range. The highway would connect a remote mining district with deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other minerals. Trilogy Metals has mining claims in remote areas of Alaska. The government deal also includes warrants to purchase an additional 7.5 per cent of the Vancouver-based company. The news sent Trilogy shares up more than 200 per cent in the premarket.
Hudbay Minerals resumes Peru operations: Canadian miner Hudbay Minerals says it has resumed operations at its Constancia mine in Peru, weeks after halting output due to local protests and blockades that had disrupted access to the site. The company has delayed a 20,000 dry-metric-tonne concentrate shipment from late September to early October due to transport disruptions and inclement ocean swells, temporarily reducing third-quarter sales volumes. Peru, one of the world’s largest copper producers, has faced recurring protests and blockades in recent years that have disrupted operations across several mines. During the shutdown, Hudbay performed preventive maintenance on the mill and mining equipment. The workforce is expected to return to normal levels over the coming days.
