Economics

Conflicting data on Alberta’s emissions leads to questions about Pathways project

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A new report on emissions from Alberta's oilsands suggests industries are emitting less pollution. Mason DePatie reports.

A new Government of Alberta report says the province’s oilsands are emitting fewer greenhouse gases than before, but one economist has doubts about the data.

The annual Oil Sands Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity Report, released Tuesday, found that emissions intensity has decreased by 28 percent since 2012.

During the same time period, oilsands production increased to 3.3 million barrels per day in 2024, 1.7 million barrels per day higher than in 2012.

The report is based on facility-level emissions and production data from regulated oilsands operators and covers the 2024 calendar year, the most recent complete reporting period.

Suncor's base plant with upgraders in the oilsands in Fort McMurray Alta, on Monday June 13, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson Suncor's base plant with upgraders in the oilsands in Fort McMurray Alta, on Monday June 13, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

The province attributes the reduction to advances in technology, improved operational efficiency, and continued investment across the sector.

Environment and Protected Areas Minister Grant Hunter stated that the findings demonstrate Alberta’s ability to expand energy production while reducing emissions per barrel.

Meanwhile, environmental economist Dave Sawyer, with the Canadian Climate Institute, says the oilsands is expected to see a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

That’s even with the Pathways carbon capture project moving ahead.

The institute has estimated an average of 20 megatonnes a year in new emissions from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity. 

The Pathways Project — being pursued by the five biggest oilsands companies — envisions storing six megatonnes a year underground starting in 2035, with the goal of an additional 10-megatonne reduction by 2045.

Sawyer also says Pathways would only offset a small portion of the emissions a new West Coast pipeline would create.

The release of the government data comes as Alberta hosts the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment meeting in Calgary.

Provincial officials plan to use the report to highlight Alberta’s strategy for reducing emissions intensity while supporting investment and growth in the energy sector.

Trees line Suncor's oilsands operation near Fort McMurray, Alta. on Friday, Sep. 1, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Victor R. Caivano Trees line Suncor's oilsands operation near Fort McMurray, Alta. on Friday, Sep. 1, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Victor R. Caivano

The report also follows an agreement announced Monday between Alberta, the federal government, and five major oilsands producers to advance the proposed Pathways carbon capture project, a multibillion-dollar initiative to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions from oilsands operations.

With files from the Canadian Press