Can Israel’s Air Defenses Withstand Attacks from Hezbollah, Houthis?

(Bloomberg) -- Israel prides itself on having some of the best air defenses in the world, but these billion-dollar systems are being tested by attacks from Iran-backed regional militias. Both the Lebanon-based Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels of Yemen have been engaged in tit-for-tat fighting with Israel since war broke out between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas in October. The groups have stepped up their use of explosive drones, which have proven more effective at evading Israel’s high-tech defenses than missiles and rockets. An escalation of their attacks could overwhelm Israel’s systems. 

What’s the nature of the fighting now?

Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging near-daily fire along the Israel-Lebanon border. The US and France are attempting to broker a diplomatic solution that would end the fighting. Should those negotiations fail, Israeli officials anticipate a full-blown war with the militia.

The Houthis have been firing ballistic missiles and drones at Israel as well as at commercial ships in the Red Sea, disrupting global shipping. On July 19, a Houthi drone hit a building in central Tel Aviv, killing a man and injuring several others, the first deadly attack of its kind on Israel’s soil. Israel retaliated a day later by bombing a key port in Hodeidah, nearly 2,000 kilometers (1240 miles) away, killing dozens in its first direct strike on Yemen.

What might a new war look like?

A future war could see Israel facing major battles with Hezbollah, the most powerful of the Iran-allied militant groups in the region. The Houthis and Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq could join in to support Hezbollah. Some experts say an escalation could ignite a broader conflict that draws in Iran and the US. 

In the last Israel-Hezbollah conflagration, in 2006, an intensive air campaign by Israel resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths, massive displacement and severe damage to homes and infrastructure in Lebanon. Lebanon’s military has no air defense capabilities, apart from a rudimentary air force vastly inferior to Israel’s. Hezbollah possesses surface-to-air missiles, and has used them to knock down Israeli drones over Lebanon.

Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure suffered in 2006 too, to a lesser extent. Now, Israel has considerable air defenses, but a new war could mean thousands of missiles fired daily at Israel that would strain — and possibly overwhelm — them. Today, Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles, including long-range and precision-guided ones that could reach deep into Israel and target major cities and strategic assets such as military bases, airports, electricity grids and hospitals, according to Israeli assessments. 

What air defenses does Israel have?

Iron Dome. The most active and well-known of Israel’s air defenses is Iron Dome, which since 2011 has intercepted thousands of rockets fired by Hezbollah and by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The system, developed by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and co-produced since 2014 with the US-based Raytheon Technologies, is designed to counter projectiles and drones with a short range, from 4 kilometers to 70 kilometers (2.5 to 43 miles). Israel’s army says Iron Dome intercepts 90% of such projectiles heading toward populated areas. The Israeli military announced in April that a mobile, maritime version of Iron Dome — known as C-Dome — was operational. It could be used to fend off Hezbollah attacks targeting Israel’s offshore gas fields or ships. 

David’s Sling. In 2017, Israel installed a medium-to-long-range interceptor known as David’s Sling, which was co-developed by Rafael and Raytheon. David’s Sling is designed to detect and destroy ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, at a reported range of up to 200 kilometers. That range covers southern Lebanon as well as Gaza.

Arrow. Israel also possesses the advanced Arrow missile defense system, made up of Arrow 2 and Arrow 3. Developers have said the Arrow system can intercept missiles fired from up to 2,400 kilometers away and can do it above Earth’s atmosphere, where long-range ballistic missiles spend part of their flight time. Arrow could be activated if the Houthis and Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq were to attack Israel to help Hezbollah.

Iron Beam. Israel’s military is testing another system called Iron Beam, which uses lasers to intercept projectiles fired at close range at less expense than the Iron Dome. Iron Beam is not expected to be operational before mid-2025.

Can these systems be overcome?

Already, Hezbollah has inflicted damage and caused dozens of casualties in northern Israel since October using kamikaze explosive drones, many of which are able to slip through Israel’s defenses. The group is thought to be increasing its stockpile of these drones. 

The Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which did not trigger any warning alerts, underscored Israel’s vulnerability to incoming drones. Israel’s army says the drone was detected but failed to be intercepted due to “human error.”

What’s more, Israel’s army has acknowledged that its air defenses, including Iron Dome, can be overwhelmed if a large number of projectiles are fired simultaneously. Israel expects Hezbollah could fire some 3,000 rockets and missiles every day during a war, far exceeding the capacity of the systems designed to intercept them. 

Some of Israel’s newer air defense systems were only recently battle-tested. Arrow 3, which was jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing Co., notched its first battlefield success in November 2023 when it shot down a missile fired toward southern Israel by the Houthi rebels. David’s Sling knocked down rockets from Gaza in fighting that erupted in May 2023. Both were successfully used in Iran’s unprecedented bombardment of Israel on April 13. During that attack, Israel and its allies intercepted 99% of the 300 drones and missiles fired at the country, mostly before they entered Israeli airspace. However, in that case, Israel had advance warning of the assault and received significant help from US and British fighter pilots, conditions that might not be repeated during a weeks- or months-long war with Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

What’s the background to the fighting? 

Both groups are part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a string of militias sponsored by Tehran that are sworn to Israel’s destruction.

Shiite Muslims in Lebanon formed what would become Hezbollah — “party of God” — in 1982, in reaction to Israel’s occupation of the country’s south at that time. The movement was inspired by the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Shiite-majority Iran, and Hezbollah is heavily influenced by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel and Hezbollah have fought repeated battles.

The Houthis, also followers of Shiite Islam, are Iran-backed rebels who seized control of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in 2014, and set off a civil war. Hostile to both Israel and the US, the Houthis have also attacked Saudi oil facilities in the past. They’ve attacked dozens of ships in the Red Sea, which has drawn reprisals from the US and the UK.

What do the parties want?

Israel says it doesn’t want a war but will pursue aggressive military action if diplomatic efforts to move Hezbollah away from its border fail. It’s calling for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 war and requires Hezbollah to be some 30 km (18 miles) from the border. The current negotiations are starting with 10 km. Under one proposal, Hezbollah would be replaced by international forces and members of the Lebanese army while a panel would address disputes over the boundary line.

Hezbollah and the Houthis have said they will stand down if Israel halts its offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

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