(Bloomberg) -- Israel’s parliament adjourns for a three-month recess on Sunday, affording some domestic respite for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid mounting criticism over the war in Gaza, calls for early elections, and a devastating Hezbollah attack that killed a dozen youngsters in the Golan Heights.
Leaders the world over are demanding a cease-fire that would see the militant group Hamas free some hostages seized in its Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.
Netanyahu returned home from the US on Sunday, a day after a rocket attack killed 12 young Druze residents of Israel on a soccer field, prompting vows of retaliation and fears of a rapid escalation. Hezbollah denied it was responsible but Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the evidence was incontrovertible and Israel would hit back hard.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while traveling in Asia, also said there was “every indication” that Hezbollah as behind the rocket strike.
In Washington this past week, thousands demonstrated against Netanyahu’s presence and the high civilian death toll from the Gaza war, now into its 10th month.
President Joe Biden, his Vice President Kamala Harris, and predecessor and Republican nominee Donald Trump met separately with Netanyahu and called for a swift end to the fighting. Harris, who’s set to face off against Trump in Nov. 5 presidential elections, said she had made clear her “serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation” in Gaza, and that she wouldn’t remain silent in the face of Palestinian suffering.
More than 39,000 people have died in Gaza since the war erupted, according to health officials of Iran-backed Hamas, which runs the strip and is designated a terrorist organization by the US. Hamas doesn’t distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties. Israel says more than 1,600 have died on its side, including 1,200 who were killed in the Hamas strike that triggered the war.
Israeli and US officials have said truce negotiations are making headway, with talks set to resume this week. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who head two of the five parties that make up Israel’s ruling coalition, have, however, warned that they could withdraw from the government should it stop fighting before Hamas is defeated, and Netanyahu has taken a hard-line stance so far.
“The war in Gaza could end tomorrow if Hamas surrenders, disarms and returns all the hostages,” Netanyahu said in a speech to a joint sitting of Congress, in which he made no mention of a cease-fire. “But if they don’t, Israel will fight until we destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its rule in Gaza and bring all our hostages home. That’s what total victory means, and we will settle for nothing less.”
Within Israel, there’s been sustained and growing public pressure for Netanyahu to take the fall for failing to secure the release of about 115 hostages still held by Hamas, 41 of whom have been declared dead in absentia.
A poll published this month by Israel’s Channel 12 television station showed 44% of 500 respondents wanted Netanyahu to resign immediately, while 22% said he should quit when the war with Hamas is over. The next elections are scheduled for late 2026.
Organizing an early vote would take at least three months, meaning Netanyahu should be able to retain power until at least February — if he sees through the parliamentary break, which ends on Oct. 27.
Under Israeli law, a majority of the Knesset’s 120 members could vote to dissolve the legislature, which would trigger national elections. That would be “almost impossible” to orchestrate while parliament is in recess because of its rules and procedures, according to Chen Friedberg, a Jerusalem-based research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute and a senior lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern studies and Political Science at Ariel University.
“The Knesset can hold plenary meetings during the recess to debate motions, but it doesn’t usually pass laws,” she said. “However, if more than half of the lawmakers agree to dissolve parliament and the speaker refuses to convene a plenary session, they could theoretically appeal to the Supreme Court to order a vote.”
The Knesset’s members could alternatively pass a motion of no confidence in the government and simultaneously vote to form a new one without having to contest fresh elections — if at least five of the 64 ruling coalition’s lawmakers were to break ranks. Opposition parties are poles apart when it comes to policy and ideology, however, and Friedberg sees the likelihood of them reaching consensus on the composition of a new administration as “close to zero.”
Those calling for an early vote include Benny Gantz, an opposition leader and former member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, who last week said the truce talks had been stalled until the Knesset went on break due to political considerations.
While Netanyahu’s hold on power is precarious, “the opposition’s attempts to force early elections or a change in government before the recess is over appear unlikely to succeed,” said Bilal Bassiouni, head of Middle East and North Africa forecasting at consulting firm Pangea-Risk. “Social discontent and street mobilization have not yet reached a critical level, which could ignite a turning point. This may still change.”
--With assistance from Galit Altstein, Gina Turner and Dan Williams.
(Updates with Netanyahu’s return, Blinken comment from third paragraph.)
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