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New Zealand Immigration Slowing Amid Record Citizen Departures

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(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand immigration slowed to its weakest in 16 months as record numbers of citizens head overseas for job opportunities and better pay.

Annual net immigration dropped to 73,270 in June from a revised 83,740 in the 12 months through May, Statistics New Zealand said Tuesday in Wellington. That’s the lowest level since February 2023. The peak of 136,600 was seen in October last year.

While the level of arrivals remains historically high, the declining trend adds to signs that demand for accommodation and other services may not be as heavy now as was assumed earlier in the year, when the Reserve Bank said it could be a source of extra inflation. The focus has swung to the rising level of departures, which reflects a sluggish domestic economy in which hiring has stalled and prospects have dimmed.

A record net 55,270 New Zealand citizens departed in the 12 months through June, today’s report showed. That comprises 80,170 departures offset by 24,900 arrivals.

Some 38% of departing citizens were aged between 18 and 30, the statistics agency said. About half were destined for Australia, it added.

Signs of a peak in immigration is another sign that the RBNZ will be more comfortable that it is getting inflation under control. Policymakers announce their next decision on interest rates tomorrow, with economists and investors unsure whether it will start cutting interest rates or wait for further evidence that inflation is returning to target.

While more Kiwis are departing, the net number of foreign arrivals is also slowing, dropping to 128,500 in the year through June from a peak of almost 180,000 in October 2023.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.