(Bloomberg) -- Russia is pressing ahead with an offensive in eastern Ukraine even as it struggles to repel a cross-border incursion into its territory by Kyiv’s army.
Russian military commanders have decided not to redeploy significant forces from the front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to help dislodge the Ukrainian assault in the Kursk region, said a person close to the Kremlin with knowledge of the discussions.
The first foreign military offensive inside Russia since World War II caught the Kremlin off guard and prompted tens of thousands to flee their homes in the region. With the incursion now in its third week, Russia’s military is struggling to mount an effective response, as Ukrainian forces claim to have expanded their control over more than 1,250 square kilometers (483 square miles) of territory. The claims couldn’t be independently verified.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a televised meeting Thursday with ministers and regional governors on the situation in Kursk and the neighboring border regions of Belgorod and Bryansk. He ordered officials to ensure that people who’d been evacuated from the area, which the Kursk regional governor put at 133,000, were cared for, but said nothing about measures to drive Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory.
Russian forces are gradually advancing in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region toward Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub for Ukrainian forces. Local authorities this week ordered an evacuation of civilians from the city.
“Pressure along the entire front line in Ukraine will continue,” said Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian National Defense magazine. “Forces from there won’t be redeployed to Kursk region.”
Some Russian forces have been diverted from Ukraine following the incursion into the Kursk region, though these are unlikely to have been frontline troops, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “The Kremlin may not be rushing to repel Ukrainian forces from the region and will instead continue to prioritize its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,” it said.
As many as 40,000-50,000 troops will be needed to take back areas in the Kursk region captured by Ukraine, according to Ian Matveev, an independent military analyst.
Conscripts may be used in those operations, according to the person close to the Kremlin. While Russian authorities have promised not to send draftees to fight in Ukraine, deployment in Kursk wouldn’t violate that pledge.
It would be a “very risky idea” for Russia to rely on relatively untrained conscripts, said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “In general they’re not fit for service.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said the military operation aims to establish a buffer zone in the Kursk region to protect Ukraine’s border communities from Russian attack.
He visited Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, bordering Kursk, for talks with his top general, Oleskandr Syrskyi, according to a post Thursday on Zelenskiy’s Telegram channel. They discussed Russia’s advances in the east and Syrskyi reported on steps to strengthen defenses near key logistics centers, he said.
Some Ukrainian commanders and soldiers have said poor training among new recruits is contributing to the loss of territory in the country’s east, the Associated Press reported Thursday, citing combatants it didn’t identify.
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