(Bloomberg) -- Five years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stripped Jammu and Kashmir of the autonomy it had enjoyed for seven decades, downgrading the country’s only Muslim-majority province from a state to a federally-controlled territory.
Jammu and Kashmir is India’s most restive province. Separatist militants, who want either independence for the region or for it to be made part of Pakistan, have clashed with the Indian army for decades.
From Sept. 18, residents will go to the polls to choose a new legislative assembly for the region, giving them some say over how they are governed for the first time since its status changed.
The vote follows a national election in which Modi’s party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in a decade. The upcoming election will show whether he’s winning over the people of Jammu and Kashmir with promises of jobs and peace — while still denying them statehood.
What’s happening?
In 2019, Jammu and Kashmir was relegated to a union territory from a state, meaning it’s now controlled primarily by the national government in New Delhi.
The loss of statehood means the region’s chief minister no longer presides over important functions such as policing, health and finance. New laws and key decisions now require the approval of the lieutenant governor, who answers to the federal government.
About 8.7 million voters are registered to vote in Jammu and Kashmir’s 90 constituencies. The elections will take place on three days: Sept. 18, Sept. 25 and Oct. 1, with votes to be counted on Oct. 8.
If one party wins half of the seats in the legislature, it can form a government and choose the chief minister. If no single party wins an outright majority, a group of parties can try to form a governing coalition.
What is special about Kashmir?
The region is divided into two parts: Jammu, with a largely Hindu population, and Kashmir, a Muslim-majority area. Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir as their own.
After colonial power Britain left the subcontinent in 1947, Kashmir — a region roughly the size of the UK and ruled by a Hindu ruler at the time — aligned with India. Pakistani politicians sponsored an invasion by tribal fighters, India intervened and the two countries fought to a stalemate.
The nuclear-armed neighbors waged two more wars over the region in the following five decades. Today they face off along a 2,065-mile (3,323-kilometer) de facto border, one of the world’s most militarized zones. Amnesty International has accused India’s security forces of human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir including torture, rape and extrajudicial killings.
For seven decades, the region had special rights under Article 370 of India’s constitution that gave it more latitude than other states to make laws in areas aside from defense, communications, foreign relations and finance. Modi’s government scrapped those constitutional guarantees in 2019 and split the region into two federally-controlled territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
Tens of thousands of soldiers were deployed to stamp out street protests contesting the changes, internet connections were cut and local political leaders were jailed for months.
Who is standing in the elections?
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and the country’s main opposition group, the Indian National Congress, will contest the elections. But local parties have tended to prevail in previous elections and are expected to dominate again. The Congress party has aligned with the province’s former chief minister Omar Abdullah and his Jammu and Kashmir National Conference.
The BJP’s support lies mainly in the Hindu-dominant area of Jammu, while it’s struggled to make headway among Muslim voters, especially in Kashmir. Previously, the BJP was aligned with another important regional player — the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party, led by Mehbooba Mufti — although that coalition collapsed in 2018. This time around, the PDP says it won’t join forces with Modi’s party and is willing to work with rivals to block it from forming a government.
Several constituencies are being contested by independent candidates. The BJP is vying for 62 constituencies, the highest number ever for the party, and is counting on support from a few independent candidates to bolster its chances.
What are the key issues for voters?
Before 2019, residents of Jammu and Kashmir had special privileges over non-residents when it came to land ownership, government jobs and education. Those guarantees were revoked five years ago, arousing anger among the local population that lingers to this day. Residents are concerned that Indians from other parts of the country will buy up property in Jammu and Kashmir and take their jobs.
Regional parties including Abdullah’s National Conference want to restore statehood as a priority so that locals have a greater say over how they’re governed.
Some parties are also promising to restart cross-border trade with Pakistan, which has been suspended since 2019. The BJP has promised to create 500,000 jobs and grant travel allowances to students living in remote, mountainous areas and pensions to elderly women.
How will the outcome affect Modi?
Modi emerged as a weaker leader from the June national election. While a BJP defeat in Jammu and Kashmir wouldn’t threaten his position as prime minister, it would provide further evidence that his party’s election-winning machine has stalled.
While Modi’s federal government will keep its firm grip on Jammu and Kashmir whatever the election outcome, a loss could undermine his effort to promote economic development as a way to cement New Delhi’s authority over the restive province.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
