(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas prices declined for the first time in more than a week, after Israeli strikes against targets in Iran avoided energy and civilian sites, signaling that supply risks linked to the conflict remain contained for now.
Benchmark futures settled 2.3% lower on Monday, following the biggest weekly gain since August. Oil contracts also slumped.
While the market had been bracing for an attack with bigger repercussions, Israel’s retaliation against Iran over the weekend was more restrained than many expected. A key risk had been that an escalation would disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for liquefied natural gas and oil.
While Europe’s fuel inventories are more than 95% full, its gas market has been on alert for supply disruptions as it relies on continuous flows from around the world. Prices have been volatile in recent weeks as traders awaited Israel’s response to a missile barrage at the start of the month. Unexpected supply outages from Norway to the US have added to risks.
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On Monday, as some of those concerns eased, weather forecasts pointed to mild conditions for the next two weeks across northwest Europe. That signals less fuel will be needed for heating.
“Above normal temperatures and the move in oil are helping push prices down,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen. “But for gas markets, the Russia-Ukraine war is more important and there’s still global competition for liquefied natural gas cargoes, which remain unchanged after the weekend’s events.”
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, settled at €42.52 a megawatt-hour in Amsterdam.
--With assistance from Anna Shiryaevskaya.
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