(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on and stabilize the political situation after the ruling party’s worst electoral result since 2009. While he is expected to continue as premier for now, he may yet not survive a leadership vote due within 30 days in parliament, and even if he does it’s unclear how long his administration would hold together.
Here are some candidates in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition who might be waiting in the wings if Ishiba is ousted.
Sanae Takaichi
Takaichi narrowly lost against Ishiba in the LDP’s leadership last month. She could be up for another shot at the top job if she can successfully blame Ishiba for the election loss and revive support within the party. Still, she was also in the faction most closely associated with the slush-fund scandal that was a key reason behind the ruling party’s defeat at the polls. Many of her colleagues in that faction, which used to be headed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also lost their seats, meaning Takaichi’s support base within the LDP has also weakened. If she became premier she would be Japan’s first female prime minister. Her support for monetary easing and major fiscal spending might get in the way of the central bank’s policy normalization efforts.
Yoshimasa Hayashi
The LDP has often counted on Hayashi for damage control in the past. When previous administrations needed a replacement for short-lived ministers, Hayashi came in and calmed the waters, a record that he highlighted during his run in the LDP’s leadership race. The current top government spokesperson is also not implicated in the slush-fund scandal, and could be a middle-of-the-road alternative. Hayashi is a former minister of foreign affairs and agriculture, and would likely deliver policy continuity both at home and abroad.
Yoshihiko Noda
The former prime minister led his Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to its best ever lower house election result. But he faces an uphill battle to form a patchwork coalition government to replace an Ishiba-led administration. With 148 seats, Noda would need every scrap of support he can get to reach the 233 seats needed for a majority. That would likely require substantial compromise with other opposition parties including the Japanese Communist Party. One key difference between the CDP and the LDP is its stance over monetary policy. Noda’s party proposes the Bank of Japan should target inflation at above zero instead of 2%, a difference that would likely cause volatility in the market as it could give the BOJ more scope to raise interest rates, an outcome that other opposition parties may be less willing to stomach.
Yuichiro Tamaki
The election result has made Tamaki, the leader of the Democratic Party For the People, a key player deciding the fate of an LDP-led ruling coalition. The opposition party is now set to have 28 seats in the lower house of parliament, sharply up from 7 before the vote. Analysts say teaming up with DPP is among the more plausible options for the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito to secure a majority in parliament. Tamaki has already said he doesn’t intend on joining the coalition, but offering a high-profile spot or even the premiership itself could sway his stance. The LDP has a precedent for choosing to back a non-LDP member for the nation’s leader: In 1994, the LDP and its coalition partners installed Tomiichi Murayama, a social democrat, as prime minister.
Katsunobu Kato
Finance Minister Kato didn’t get much support in the September LDP leadership race, but the fact he has good relationships with both conservatives and reformists within the party can boost his appeal as a leader who can bring lawmakers together. Kato, a former Finance Ministry official, has played key roles under the last three premiers. He served as the government’s top spokesperson and helped guide Japan through the Covid-19 pandemic as health minister.
Yoko Kamikawa
If the LDP wants to put a fresh face on its leader, Kamikawa, a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before entering politics, could be a dark horse. Kamikawa is known for her efforts to promote female representation in the party, which is a constant source of criticism for the LDP. Kamikawa, who formerly served as justice minister and foreign minister, didn’t garner much support in her first bid for the LDP’s leadership, but she didn’t make any obvious enemies either with her relatively generic policy proposals.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
