(Bloomberg) -- Economists have given up hope that Germany can avoid a second consecutive year of shrinking output, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Analysts in the poll see gross domestic product contracting 0.1% in 2024, after a 0.3% fall in 2023. A month ago, they still forecast stagnation this year.
For 2025, they revised their full-year projection down to 0.7% from 0.8%. In 2026, they expect 1.3% growth — unchanged from the previous survey round.
Europe’s largest economy has once again avoided a technical recession, with unexpected growth of 0.2% in the third quarter. But that followed a steeper-than-initially-reported slump of 0.3% between April and June. More details on the drivers for the quarter are due on Friday.
At the same time, the outlook has darkened, also because of heightened political uncertainty after the re-election of Donald Trump and the collapse of the German government.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week warned that Trump’s threatened trade levies could cost Germany 1% of economic output.
Given that German economic growth will be below 1% in the coming year even without US tariffs, output could actually slip into negative territory, he added.
Economists differ on the potential impact of Trump on the German economy, according to a separate question in the survey.
Among those who already revised their GDP forecast because of his return to the White House, many expect a drag of 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points. But economists at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg see output to be 0.9 percentage points lower in 2025.
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