GENEVA — The World Trade Organization is sharply raising its forecast for trade growth in goods this year after an unexpectedly strong first half due to rising AI-related purchases, front-loaded imports in the U.S. over tariff fears and robust developing-world trade.
The Geneva-based trade body said Tuesday its economists are increasing their prediction of growth in merchandise trade to 2.4 per cent this year, up from 0.9 per cent as recently as August. In April, WTO experts were actually anticipating a decline of goods trade this year of 0.2 per cent.
However, they’re lowering the prediction for 2026 to 0.5 per cent, from 1.8 per cent.
The growth of export in services, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 4.6 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent next year — both slower rates than the 6.8 per cent tallied in 2024.
WTO pointed to “robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods” that are driving the increase in merchandise trade, notably semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala suggested solid trade growth among developing countries and a cool-headed reaction to sweeping — and often-varying — tariffs announced by the Trump administration earlier this year had underpinned the gains.
“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” she said.
Despite “strong headwinds,” Okonjo-Iweala said trade has shown resilience because of “importers front-loading orders to get ahead of future tariff hikes or retaliation.” U.S. inventories are at record levels by dollar value, and the value of North America’s imports surged 13.2 per cent at an annual rate, driven by pharmaceuticals and precious metals — mostly gold.
She also attributed the gains to “soaring demand” for AI-related products behind a capital investment boom. A staggering 42 per cent of global trade growth came from AI-related goods, she said, much higher than their 15 per cent share in world trade.
South-South trade — among developing countries — grew 8 per cent year-on-year in value terms in the first half of the year, while such trade involving partners other than China is growing at around 9 per cent, WTO said.
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Jamey Keaten, The Associated Press
