As international attention turns to the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire, a Middle East security expert says the deal faces political and security obstacles - with Hamas’ refusal to disarm emerging as the main issue.
Speaking ahead of the planned meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, Thomas Warwick, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative told CTV’s News Channel on Monday the talks are likely to narrow, but will not resolve major differences.
Netanyahu is expected to press Washington for broader freedom of action on several fronts including support against Iran’s rebuilding missile program, Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon and Gaza itself, Warwick said.
On Gaza, he said Netanyahu is likely to argue that Trump’s plan does not explicitly require Hamas to disarm, a condition Israel views as non-negotiable.
“(Netanyahu) may ask that if Hamas does not disarm by some specified date, Israel be allowed to go back in and attack Hamas’ units, especially in Gaza City,” Warwick said.
According to Warwick, the peace plan hinges on two core elements: Hamas laying down its weapons, and the deployment of a large international stabilization force. He said roughly 20,000 troops would be needed, drawn from a mix of European, Arab and Muslim-majority countries.
“Trump has already named a respected, two star Army General to head up this effort, but countries have been unwilling so far to send troops if it means they’re going to have to confront Hamas,” he explained.
Financing Gaza’s reconstruction presents another hurdle. Warwick said the Gulf of Arab states have been unwilling to fund rebuilding efforts as long as Hamas remains armed, fearing future conflict would destroy infrastructure and homes again.
While tensions between Israel and Iran continue to simmer, Warwick added that those dynamics are separate from the Gaza negotiations.
Iran, he noted, remains under maximum sanctions and shows no indication of shifting its regional strategy.
Despite the challenges, Warwick said the best hope for Gaza lies in securing an international stabilization force and solid commitments to disarmament.
“I think 2026 is likely to see renewed fighting on at least one of the fronts we have been discussing. I expect Canada may get a call,” he said, referring to the international stabilization force.
The truce’s first phase began in October, days after the two-year anniversary of the initial Hamas-led attack on Israel that killed around 1,200 people. The first phase aimed to halt hostilities in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages.
All but one of the 251 hostages taken then have been released, alive or dead.
Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of repeated violations and Israel has continued military strikes across the enclave.
Next is Trump’s 20-point plan, approved by the UN Security Council which lays out a vision for ending Hamas’ rule of Gaza.
U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.
With files from The Associated Press
