After widespread Canadian job losses, a churning trade dispute and repeated insults against Canada’s leaders, the Trump administration faces a major test today as Americans vote to maintain a Republican majority or give Democrats the balance of power.
Polls in Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida (western Panhandle), Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Kentucky have all closed.
Canada-focused updates, analysis and results below:
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Key updates
- A handful of polls have closed
- Early votes: Registered Dems cast 43%, GOP 31%
- Carney, Trump say intensive trade talks underway
Carney on U.S. trade talks
Prime Minister Mark Carney says American negotiators are “asking less and they’re offering more” to Canada during trade talks.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Carney said intensive negotiations are underway, even without an official Canadian trade delegation in Washington.
Read the full story here.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Carney said intensive negotiations are underway, even without an official Canadian trade delegation in Washington.
Read the full story here.
Trump talks Canada deal
While discussing fertilizer shipments through the Hormuz Strait, Trump noted it’s one of the exports he expects will pick up following a deal with Canada.
“We’re close to a trade deal with Canada where they’re going to give fertilizer without any tariff,” he told Fox & Friends today.
In a last pitch to undecided voters, U.S. President Donald Trump also credited tariffs for energizing the American auto manufacturing industry. He noted a recent announcement from Audi, which plans to build a plant in Georgia.
“Other car companies are coming in because they don’t want to pay tariffs,” he said.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Gernot Döllner, CEO of Audi AG, at a campaign rally at Guardian Centers of Georgia, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, in Perry, Ga. (A5P Photo/Mike Stewart)
How do midterms work?
Midterms happen two years into a president’s term. Trump himself is not up for re-election, but the makeup of the two U.S. legislative bodies – the House of Representatives and the Senate – is likely to shift as Americans vote.
Who’s on the ballot?
All members of the House of Representatives, often called “the House,” who serve two-year terms.
About a third of senators, who serve six-year terms.
This year, 36 states will also elect governors.
What could change?
Democrats have a shot at taking control of the House and Senate.
To win the Senate, they need to hold all the seats they have now, plus four.
To win the House, the Democrats need to net three seats for a majority.
What’s at stake?
Congress, the umbrella term for the House and Senate, is responsible for creating laws, authorizing spending and collecting taxes, staffing confirmations, and investigations.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress, they will need to rely on Democrats’ support to pass legislation.
Republicans hold Florida
Republican Ashley Moody won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Florida, defeating Democrat Angie Nixon.
Moody first took the seat when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped her to succeed Marco Rubio when he became U.S. secretary of state in 2025.
A former state attorney general, Moody will serve the last two years of the term Rubio won in 2022.
Nixon, a state lawmaker, is a democratic socialist who tested the strength of Democrats’ left flank in a state where the party has not won a U.S. Senate seat since 2012.
Moody first took the seat when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped her to succeed Marco Rubio when he became U.S. secretary of state in 2025.
A former state attorney general, Moody will serve the last two years of the term Rubio won in 2022.
Nixon, a state lawmaker, is a democratic socialist who tested the strength of Democrats’ left flank in a state where the party has not won a U.S. Senate seat since 2012.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., at a campaign rally at the Ocean Center, in Daytona Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 30, 2026. . (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Trump vows to use veto power if Democrats win Congress
Trump said he is prepared to use his veto power and executive authority if Democrats take control of Congress in the midterm elections.
In a phone interview with CBS News, Trump called the veto his “ultimate power” and said he would embrace the nickname “Mr. Veto” if Democrats gain control of the House or Senate.
Despite polls suggesting potential Republican losses, Trump expressed confidence in his agenda, pointing to a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling involving Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter.
Trump said the decision in Trump v. Slaughter “gives the president tremendous powers that it never had before.”
Democrat Roy Cooper wins N.C. Senate seat
Democrat Roy Cooper won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing North Carolina, defeating Republican Michael Whatley.
It has been 18 years since a Democrat held a Senate seat in North Carolina.
Cooper's victory gives Democrats a key pickup in their quest to wrest Senate control from Republicans. The seat was open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis opted not to seek another term.
Cooper is a former governor and state attorney general. Whatley is a former state and national Republican Party chairman who ran with Trump's support.
Roy Cooper speaks to supporters in Raleigh, N.C., on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Ramey)
Democrat Chris Pappas wins election to U.S. Senate from New Hampshire
Democrat Chris Pappas won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing New Hampshire, defeating Republican John Sununu. The race was one of a handful that will help determine which party controls the Senate and Pappas’ victory defended the key seat for the Democrats. Pappas, a member of the U.S. House, will replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who decided not to seek reelection. Sununu previously served in the Senate and House.
Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., speaks during a debate against Republican Senate candidate John E. Sununu, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Reba Saldanha)
Democrats win Senate races in Mass., R.I. and Ill.
Democrats have won U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Illinois – two of which are re-elections.
In Massachusetts, Ed Markey won re-election, defeating a primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton on his way to winning another term in the Senate, where he's served since 2013.
Democratic incumbent Jack Reed won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Rhode Island, defeating Republican Raymond McKay. Reed will return to the Senate for a sixth term.
In Illinois, Democrat Juliana Stratton won election to the U.S. Senate, defeating Republican Don Tracy. Currently lieutenant governor, Stratton will succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat who is retiring after five terms.
A person leaves a voting location after casting their ballot at the New Beginnings Community Church in Memphis, Tenn., on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)
The day after
As more polls close in the United States, Canadians and Americans are already asking what the ultimate outcome will mean, for the political settlement that will emerge from the midterm elections.
The 119th U.S. Congress
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans currently hold an effective five-seat majority (including one Independent Representative who caucuses with them) over the Democrats. All 435 House seats are being contested.
In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold an effective six-seat majority over the Democrats (including two Independent Senators who caucus with them). Of the 100 Senate seats, 35 are being contested.
Over the past two years, Donald Trump has, therefore, enjoyed a working majority of allies in both chambers of Congress, giving him freedom to pursue his policies with little restraint from the legislature.
The 120th U.S. Congress
Most polls predict that the Democrats are likely to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, and may secure a majority in the Senate. If so, the next Congress will be far more fraught, as legislators and the president battle to impose their will on the national agenda.
Weapons in a constitutional fight
The U.S. Constitution gives the president several weapons in this fight:
- a qualified veto over legislation
- control of federal institutions
- the power to pardon his allies (and, Trump argues, even himself) for federal crimes
- a near-monopoly on foreign affairs.
Congress’ constitutional weapons are still broader:
- the exclusive right to pass legislation
- the right to review and block senior federal appointments
- the power to impeach members of the Administration
- control of the federal budget.
The constitutional framers imagined that Congress would make the laws and the president would duly ensure that those laws were executed, and that both institutions would act as democratic checks on one another.
It is not clear whether they expected either institution might try to use its powers to try to contain or subjugate the other. But here we are.
The sun rises behind the U.S. Capitol on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)
Florida Senate race neck-in-neck
With more than three quarters of votes counted, the Florida U.S. Senate race has a difference of only a single percentage point.
Republican incumbent Ashley Moody has 3,512,692, amounting to 49.6 per cent of votes counted so far.
Democrat Angie Nixon has 49.6 per cent of votes with 3,493,706 at 49.3 per cent.
The Associated Press reports 85 per cent of votes counted.
Florida Senate race neck-in-neck
With more than three quarters of votes counted, the Florida U.S. Senate race has a difference of only a single percentage point.
Republican incumbent Ashley Moody has 3,469,350, amounting to 49.7 per cent of votes counted so far.
Democrat Angie Nixon has 49.6 per cent of votes with 3,438,446 at 49.2 per cent.
The Associated Press reports 84 per cent of votes counted.
Democrat Jon Ossoff wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Georgia
Democrat Jon Ossoff won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Georgia, defeating Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff was the only Senate Democrat seeking reelection in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, and holding his seat was critical to his party’s hopes of flipping control of the Senate. Ossoff was considered vulnerable at the outset of the 2026 election cycle. But he vastly outraised Collins, a two-term congressman who won Trump’s endorsement during an extended Republican primary, and he ran an aggressive campaign that gained national attention for his biting critiques of Trump.
Democratic candidate U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff speaks at his final campaign event before Election Day, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Decatur, Ga. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
Early turnout surpasses 2022 midterms: AP
Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, with early voting turnout surpassing the last midterm in 2022.
By afternoon on Election Day, the biggest issues affecting voting were weather-related, with flooding in Florida and parts of the Southwest prompting changes to polling locations and other emergency measures.
A problem with ballot scanners also was delaying vote counting -- though voting was able to continue -- in New York's suburban Westchester County, part of which is in a U.S. House district with a competitive race.
Trump slams Fox News over election coverage
Trump took to social media to lash out at Fox News Tuesday evening.
“FoxNews Ratings are way down (27%!) because they’re spending too much time covering the Trump Deranged Dumocrats!” Trump wrote on Truth Social
Trump went on to say that his “numbers are better than they have ever been,” adding that the new CNN poll stated that “‘TRUMP’ is at 99% among Republicans and, among Republican Presidents, 'TRUMP’ is at 53%, compared to Ronald Reagan at 18%, and Abraham Lincoln at 8%!”
“Also, why is Fox Corp. spending so much money donating to the Worst of the Worst, including Hakeem Jeffries, Jamie Raskin, Ted Lieu, Pete Aguilar, the California Dumocratic Party, the Dumocratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Dumocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, the CHC Bold PAC, and the New Dumocrat Coalition Action Fund, among others?” he wrote.
“They’re way down, not because of me, but because they are AGAINST me! This happened once before, and Fox almost collapsed. It’s happening again!”
Poll closing times
The majority of polls in Indiana and Kentucky closed at 6 p.m. EST (although parts of both states in the central time zone are staying open until 7 p.m. EST).
Here's a handy chart by the Associated Press on when and where polls are closing tonight. (All times Eastern)
Georgia warns voters of fake texts saying polling locations changed
Election officials out of Fulton County, Ga. are warning voters of text messages falsely claiming that polling places had changed.
“Some Fulton County voters have reported receiving text messages regarding polling place changes,” Fulton County posted to social media on Tuesday.
The county advised voters to verify their polling place by checking the state’s website.
Fulton County is the most populous county in Georgia and home to the state’s capital, Atlanta.
The U.S. Senate race is between Democrat incumbent Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins. Voters will also help decide Georgia’s governor, choosing between Democrat former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson.
Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins in Florida
Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz won her election Tuesday to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Republican Brent Andersen.
She is the first Jewish congresswoman elected from Florida and served in the state’s House and Senate before winning federal office.
Democrat wins re-election in Virginia
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner won his election for to the U.S. Senate representing Virginia, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa.
Warner’s victory comes in a state with some of the highest numbers of federal workers, who bore the brunt of U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the government workforce early in his second term.
Uh oh for Republicans in Indiana?
We’re getting some early results in red state Indiana. District 5, which President Trump overwhelmingly won in 2024, is showing Republican incumbent Victoria Spartz trailing 2:1!
Thirty per cent of the vote has been counted so far and is primarily mail-in -- and early votes tend to lean democratic. The open question now is will conservative voters close the gap with day of voting, or do these numbers hold?
Associated Press map
Trump hasn’t committed to accepting the election results
Voting rights groups, Democrats and the U.S. Justice Department have been exchanging a flurry of legal filings over election processes -- court battles that may extend past Election Day into counting and certification of the results.
Election law experts said the administration’s legal arguments were unlikely to convince judges.
Trump also has ramped up his own equivocations about whether the election will be legitimate, as he has in the past. A week before Election Day, he wouldn’t commit to accepting the results.
“I will if they are honest,” he said.
Election law experts said the administration’s legal arguments were unlikely to convince judges.
Trump also has ramped up his own equivocations about whether the election will be legitimate, as he has in the past. A week before Election Day, he wouldn’t commit to accepting the results.
“I will if they are honest,” he said.
Will Alaska flip?
The line is growing to vote at the Midtown mall here in Anchorage as we get deeper into the afternoon.
And not everyone lining up has done this before. One young man just emerged from the ballot box to a cheer from election volunteers. A celebration of casting his first ever vote in an election.
And it’s an election that matters to not only people here in Anchorage, but also in Alaska’s vast network of tiny communities across this giant state.
Alaska is the largest state in the U.S., it’s actually twice the size of Texas. But it only has the population of Winnipeg.
Plus, many communities are only accessible by plane or boat. They’re not on the road network.
I just spoke with a voter from a small village of about 900. Her main election concern? The rising cost of fuel and in particular, stove oil. Many rural Alaskans also rely on heating oil for their homes, as many people do in Atlantic Canada.
It is that sort of discontent with the cost of living, which Alaskans have told us is being exacerbated by tariffs on Canadian food this state relies on, that may be fueling a senate race polling shows slightly tilted toward Democrats. Flipping the Alaskan seat in play from blue to red could decide control of the chamber nationally.
Poll worker Ray Oakley helps a voter scan their ballot at the Valley Bible Chalet on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Indian, Alaska. . AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson
Iran war, affordability top of mind in Michigan
DETROIT – The trade war with Canada is a factor, but it’s not the deciding one in how Michiganders are casting their ballot today in Macomb County.
The area north of Detroit, which voted Republican in the 2024 general election, could be the start of a blue wave if Democratics pick up seats in Congress.
Many voters flagged concerns over the war in the Middle East and the affordability crisis as motivating factors for how they are voting in the U.S. midterms.
An early voter, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in White Lake, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Trump gives and Trump takes away
This election will be a tale of two Trumps.
In 2024, he made tremendous inroads with voters of colour, specifically Black men and Latino voters. Moreover, he also did well with voters under the age of 30, largely due to rising inflation and frustration with President Joe Biden’s inability to solve runaway prices.
Many on the right were hopeful the Republican Party could benefit from these gains for a generation or more. Now, if the polls hold, all those gains made in 2024 will have evaporated as Democrats appear to have re-gained those voters putting traditionally red states competitive for the first time in decades.
Money and the midterm elections
The United States once had a more robust system of laws to limit third-party spending in elections. The objective was to reduce the reality and perception of corruption, by restraining corporations, unions, wealthy individuals, and others, from using their funds to purchase outcomes in elections.
But in 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down many of those laws, in Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission. Broadly, the court equated the right of these entities to spend money influencing elections with the constitutionally-enshrined right to freedom of speech.
Since then, the cost of U.S. elections has skyrocketed, with no practical ceiling to donations or expenditures.
The US$11.9 billion campaign
This midterm election is projected to cost US$11.9 billion, making it arguably the most expensive election in the history of organized societies.
One-fifth of those funds, or US$2.4 billion, come from just 40 individuals and groups.
Of those, Elon Musk is far and away the largest political donor, gifting US$483 million to Republican campaigns. George Soros is the Democrats' largest donor, at US$102 million.
Blanketing the airwaves
The vast majority of this money has been spent on advertising.
For voters in swing districts, it has become impossible to avoid political ads, which appear ceaselessly on online platforms, radio, television, newspapers, bus shelters, billboards, and even fast food wrappers.
In the last week alone, districts in Florida, Michigan, New York, and North Carolina have spent more than US$10 million on local advertising.
A good or a bad bargain?
Ironically, even as more money is being poured into political advertising, most research suggests that political ads are becoming less effective at shaping voter choice. However, they do retain the power to affect voter enthusiasm, and therefore affect the likelihood that a voter will cast any ballot at all.
Which party will win the midterm elections remains to be seen. But there is no doubt that political fundraisers and advertising firms are already celebrating their victories.
Weather disrupts voting in the Southwest and Florida
Heavy rains and flash flooding in a swath of the Southwest were making it harder for some voters to reach polling places in parts of Colorado, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Election administrators in the Navajo Nation announced several polling location changes, and in Utah’s rural San Juan County, voters were allowed to vote electronically on Tuesday to account for difficulty getting to the polls.
Flooding in eight Florida counties also prompted some last-minute polling location changes in the state.
Election administrators and voting rights advocates had advised voters casting late absentee ballots to use drop boxes or deliver them to polling places in person, noting that recent changes in U.S. Postal Service operations could result in postmarking delays.
The Israeli issue
Today, President Trump shook up election day with his announcement that the U.S. will end foreign aid to Israel at the end of this year. The internal battle roiling the Democratic Party is largely driven by the Israel-Palestine issue. Michigan has become the flashpoint for this brutal fight and could impact the balance of power in Washington. This is a huge gamble by the White House and has the potential to negate any damage to the Democratic brand in Michigan.
Jewish Voters lean reliably blue and any gains the GOP hoped for over troubling comments made by Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed on Israel, could likely be negated. The president quite possibly thinks his party needed a bold political move to sway voters at the 11th hour.
Time will tell if this move gives the president’s party the boost it needs.
Workers wave from a raised platform while installing a billboard depicting, from left, U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Vice President JD Vance with apparent injuries and torn clothing in central Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. . (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Voting has had few disruptions
Millions of Americans had already cast their ballots, with early voting turnout on pace to eclipse that of the last midterm elections.
Voting on Tuesday has had few disruptions so far.
In Westchester County, election officials said ballot scanners were not accepting paper ballots, an issue that resulted from a program update made after polling equipment was initially prepared and tested. That required the ballots to be placed in emergency bags for later counting. Officials stressed that the ballots would remain secure and monitored and that voters could continue casting ballots while they worked to resolve the issue.
At polling locations across Florida’s Broward County, voting was delayed for 20 minutes after polls opened because a new voting system safety feature malfunctioned. Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott apologized to voters who had to wait and said some left before they were able to vote. The problem was solved by 7:20 a.m. EST, and Scott encouraged those who left to return.
Officials also extended voting hours at three polling sites in Pennsylvania and five in North Carolina after technical issues created delays.
Canadians charged: DOJ
More Canadians have been charged with offences related to illegally voting in U.S. elections.
The U.S. Department of Justice announced Monday that three more Canadians are among 63 people charged with illegal voting, fraudulent voter registration and other election crimes in the United States.
Since September, a total of 15 Canadians have been among those charged with similar offences in the U.S.
“Today’s announcement marks the largest surge of voter-fraud arrests since (U.S. President Donald Trump) returned to office,” U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a news release Monday.
The Canadians are permanent U.S. residents who have a green card that allows them to live and work permanently in the U.S.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office also announced on Oct. 29 that two Canadians who lived in Wisconsin were charged with illegally voting in the 2022 and 2024 U.S. elections.
The view from here
ANCHORAGE -- I’m at a polling place in Anchorage, which has seen record turnout in advance voting over the past two days.
People were waiting in line for up to two hours. A DJ was even brought in to entertain them!
The importance of this election is not lost on anyone here - and neither is the unusual national attention on this isolated state - related to the potential for the Senate seat held by Republican Dan Sullivan to flip to Democrat Mary Peltola.
Some of the election issues here are uniquely Alaskan - including concern over the massive fishing industry.
I just spoke with a young woman leaving the voting station who told me she has had enough of boats coming up from the so-called “lower 48” and stealing fish from Alaskans. She says it’s happening more than ever before, and the driving force behind her wish to punish the Trump administration by voting for Peltola.
Exit poll: Nearly half of voters see midterms as rebuke of Trump
NBC News just released some early results from its exit poll, in which nearly half of voters said they see the midterms as a rebuke of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Forty-three per cent said one reason for voting was to express their opposition to the president. Voters said inflation is causing hardship for their families, and they blamed Trump’s policies for making the economy worse.
Midterms to change D.C. dynamic: author
“We are already seeing record-breaking turnout,” American author and political commentator Avis Jones-DeWeever told CTV News Channel on Tuesday. She predicted the midterms are “going to change the whole dynamic,” in Washington.
She added the election results will put a check on the powers of the current U.S. administration that she said has “harmed” many people across the country and around the world.
“People are being crushed under the cost of gas … groceries … and electricity in this country.”
The sun rises behind the U.S. Capitol on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)
Redistricting and Gerrymandering
The total number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives is set at 435, by federal law. Every 10 years, the federal census determines how many of those seats are apportioned to each state, to ensure broadly comparable representation by population.
The map and the ballot box
Each state government then draws its own electoral map, to determine how its federal House seats are distributed across its territory.
Inevitably, in some states, the party that holds a majority in the state legislature has used its power to create distorted and improbable electoral maps, designed to advantage that party’s candidates in federal congressional elections.
The process has long been known as “gerrymandering”, after a notoriously egregious instance in 19th century Massachusetts.
Gerrymandering and counter-gerrymandering
All states went through their usual redistricting process (the drawing of federal electoral maps) shortly after the 2020 national census.
However, in 2025, Donald Trump publicly called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to again redraw their congressional maps, to protect the party’s control of the federal House of Representatives. Several Democratic-controlled state legislatures retaliated with redistricting exercises of their own.
In total, six states passed new congressional maps after the 2024 elections:
- California
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Tennessee
- Texas
Litigation also produced new maps in three additional states:
- Alabama
- Louisiana
- Utah
In total, nearly one-third of the country’s seats have been affected by these duelling exercises.
Sound and fury signifying what?
But after all this effort, expense, and controversy, most analyses conclude that the redistricting wars will have only a limited effect on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.
Overall, the Republicans appear to have come out modestly ahead, but far less than they had hoped or the Democrats had feared.
In the end, the sound and fury of dramatic political and judicial struggles over redistricting were overtaken by still more dramatic swings in demography and public opinion.
Tariffs play outsized role in Maine
U.S. tariffs on Canada have played an outsized role in the Senate race in Maine, but experts say there may not be any relief coming for Canadians regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s midterms.
Canadian government figures show the state imports C$4.1 billion in goods from Canada each year, making it Maine's largest trading partner.
That includes $2 billion in heating oil, more than half a billion dollars from the forestry industry and $263 million in electricity from New Brunswick, among other categories.
The economic impacts in Maine have become a key obstacle for incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is hoping to hold off Democratic party challenger Troy Jackson and return to the upper chamber of the U.S. legislature for a sixth term.
Our live blog team
Welcome to our U.S. midterm live blog. Along with posts from CTVNews.ca journalists and producers, you’ll find entries from national correspondents and political analysts, including:
Joy Malbon, CTV News Washington Bureau Chief
Mike Le Couteur, Senior Political Correspondent (reporting today from Michigan)
Andrew Johnson, B.C. Bureau Chief (reporting today from Alaska)
Eric Ham, CTV News political analyst and former congressional staffer (in Washington)
Akaash Maharaj, expert in U.S. politics and Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy
Joy Malbon, CTV News Washington Bureau Chief
Mike Le Couteur, Senior Political Correspondent (reporting today from Michigan)
Andrew Johnson, B.C. Bureau Chief (reporting today from Alaska)
Eric Ham, CTV News political analyst and former congressional staffer (in Washington)
Akaash Maharaj, expert in U.S. politics and Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy
An Immigration agency warning
U.S. federal immigration officials took to social media to warn against illegal voting by noncitizens.
In a message on X, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement wrote: "If you vote illegally, we will find you. We will track you down, arrest you, and prosecute you. There will be no escape."
In a message on X, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement wrote: "If you vote illegally, we will find you. We will track you down, arrest you, and prosecute you. There will be no escape."
People cast their vote at the Switzer Fire Station on Election Day in Frankfort, Ky., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. . (AP Photo/Arden Barnes)
Impact of advance voting
Advance voting (i.e., voting before election day, in person or by mail) has shattered records in states across the country. Americans on both sides of the country’s partisan divide seem to agree with the oft-repeated phrase that this may be the most consequential midterm election of their lifetimes.
Advance voters out in droves
An extraordinary 60.5 million American cast advance votes.
A break with the past
This enthusiasm is a sharp contrast with the historical record.
Typically, most American citizens have not exercised their rights to vote in midterm elections at all. The past overall voter turnout has ranged from as low as 41.9 per cent of eligible voters (in 2014, under Obama) to 53.4 per cent (in 2018, under Trump).
Early voting favours the Democrats
Some 43.1 per cent of early votes were cast by registered Democrats, 31.2 per cent by registered Republicans, and 25.6 per cent by registered Independent and other-party voters.
In most states, citizens can declare a party affiliation during the voter registration process, to participate in a political party’s primaries (i.e., the process of selecting the party’s candidates for public elections). Such a declaration does not bind a person to vote for that party’s candidate in the public election, but it is highly suggestive of voting intentions.
Santiago Rivera paints on a sign outside a polling place after casting his ballot on Election Day during the midterm election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Clayton, Mo. . (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Trump talks Canada deal
While discussing fertilizer shipments through the Hormuz Strait, Trump noted it’s one of the exports he expects will pick up following a deal with Canada.
“We’re close to a trade deal with Canada where they’re going to give fertilizer without any tariff,” he told Fox & Friends today.
In a last pitch to undecided voters, U.S. President Donald Trump also credited tariffs for energizing the American auto manufacturing industry. He noted a recent announcement from Audi, which plans to build a plant in Georgia.
“Other car companies are coming in because they don’t want to pay tariffs,” he said.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Gernot Döllner, CEO of Audi AG, at a campaign rally at Guardian Centers of Georgia, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, in Perry, Ga. (A5P Photo/Mike Stewart)
When will we know the outcome?
Polling stations are currently open across the United States. Continuous population growth in the country means that each national election is the largest democratic exercise in its history.
However, as a federated country, individual states set many of the laws governing how and when votes are counted, and the voting process itself is managed locally.
This means that though most votes will be tabulated within a eight hours of the close of polling, some races will take days to report a victor.
Polls will start to close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. EST. At 7 p.m. EST polls will close in these states:
- Georgia
- South Carolina
- Virginia
- Vermont
The last polls close will do so at 1:00 a.m. EST (on Wednesday morning) in:
- Alaska’s Aleutian Islands
Balloting will continue in some of the U.S. Pacific Island Territories to elect their delegates to the U.S. House of Representatives. However, those delegates hold only speaking, and not voting, rights in the House.
Voters cast their ballots at the Cathedral of St. John the Divine in New York on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. . (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
Ex-Trump voter
An Ohio resident, who voted for Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, says he is voting against the president in the midterms, mainly because of what he described as an “unnecessary” war with Iran.
In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Dale King said one of Trump’s key presidential campaign promises was “no new wars.”
“To me, it feels like a disrespectful slap in the face to have served in the global War on Terror.”
An Iraq war veteran, King said he is supporting whoever is against warfare.
President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Shoemaker Center at Ohio University Chillicothe in Chillicothe, Ohio, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)
‘Our vote is our voice’: Bruce Springsteen
U.S. rock legend Bruce Springsteen, a staunch Democrat, urged election officials Tuesday to resist any government voting interference amid fears U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration may intervene in the midterms.
“I’m speaking to election officials and representatives of our government on election day. You have sworn an oath to preserve, protect and defend our Constitution,” the 77-year-old said in a video on Instagram.
“That means you have a solemn duty to ensure that our votes are securely counted,” he said. “You who represent us must never consent to any directives that undermine our constitutional right to a free and fair election.”
“Our vote is our voice, and it’s up to you to ensure that our voice is heard,” added Springsteen, wearing a brown flannel shirt.
Where do Michigan’s candidates stand on tariffs?
Both Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) and Mike Rogers (Republican) have toed the line on their support for tariffs. On one hand, they’ve stressed American manufacturing. On the other hand, they’ve argued, tariffs can protect domestic industries.
The two were asked about their stance on Trump’s tariff policies during an Oct. 21 televised debate on WXYZ-TV Detroit.
Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Mike Rogers listens to a question during a campaign event Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in Grosse Pointe Woods, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Rogers
Rogers said it’s a “mixed bag.” He argued Trump is reshoring American manufacturing, but added, “Maybe these Canadian tariffs were not well thought through.”
He cited Michigan’s auto industry, which is closely integrated with Canadian factories and supply chains.
“Maybe these Canadian tariffs were not well thought through.”Mike Rogers
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks during a campaign rally, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, in Sterling Heights, Mich. . (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
El-Sayed
El-Sayed said tariffs have hurt American workers and called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) a “terrible cancer” on the U.S. economy.
NAFTA, the free-trade deal that preceded the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, has been blamed for allowing large corporations to move manufacturing out of the U.S. in favour of lower-wage labour in Mexico.
“Maybe there’s a kind of tariff you could use as chemotherapy, but you don’t give all the chemo all at once,” said El-Sayed, a trained physician.
He also said he wants Michigan to develop a 300 mile-range US$25,000 EV as the groundwork for a domestic EV manufacturing industry, protected by tariffs.
“Maybe there’s a kind of tariff you could use as chemotherapy.”Abdul El-Sayed
Record year for women running
This midterm has been a record-breaker for women vying for state and federal offices. Democrats increased their 2022 number of women candidates to 19 running for governor, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. The Republican Party has seven women setting their sights on governor.
Like Minnesota, Tennessee will elect its first female governor. The main candidates are Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Jerri Green, a Memphis city councilwoman.
Nearly 300 women, including incumbents, are running for the U.S. Senate and House, as documented by Rutgers' Center for American Women and Politics.
Democrats will struggle to ‘veto-proof’ Trump: Shaw
Shaw, who most recently served as Trump’s deputy assistant for international economic affairs, said even if Democrats take control of both the House and the Senate, they’re not going to be able to “build a veto-proof majority to meaningfully pass legislation.”
Everything outside of the Defense Authorization Act and appropriations is going to be about “posturing and positioning for 2028 (U.S. presidential elections).”
“I don't think that either party truly has their north star in terms of the 2028 agenda,” Shaw told CTV News Channel Tuesday. “But the Democrats are going to struggle even more than the Republicans.”
Shaw also said that this means the Trump is “going to be in the driver's seat for governing the nation,” and when it comes to tariffs and Canada-U.S. relations – he’s going to continue to lead “largely unchecked.”
Trade war not on Trump’s mind: former adviser
A former senior White House trade adviser under U.S. President Donald Trump says the Trump administration is not concerned with the Canada-U.S. trade war impacting the outcome of midterms.
According to Kelly Ann Shaw, if the Trump administration was “really desperate” for a deal, there would have been signs two weeks ago.
“They don't see this as necessarily impacting voters' minds,” Shaw told CTV News Channel Tuesday. “Voters may not like some of these Canada tariffs, but they're not casting their ballot because of them.”
“I'm not saying that these tariffs don't matter,” she later clarified.
“It's not that the Canada tariffs are going to direct who's voting for whom. They are just another chit in the narrative about whether or not Americans feel like they can afford their daily lives.”
Former Mich. governor predicts Democrat ‘landslide’
Former Michigan governor and U.S. ambassador to Canada James Blanchard says he’s predicting a “huge landslide” for the Democrats in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Adding the major victory would be “good for Canada-U.S. relations,” Blanchard said in an interview on CTV News Channel on Tuesday that as a Michigander, he’s hopeful a Democrat-majority Congress will rescind U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Pressed by host Marcia MacMillan on the bold prediction when polls have been wrong in the past by underestimating the Republican vote, Blanchard said he’s “lived landslides.”
“I've lived through a few of them, and I've benefited from two of them,” he said.
“It's a referendum on Donald Trump,” he also said. “It's not some ratification of the Democratic platform. We don't have an overall platform.”
“It is a repudiation of Donald J. Trump and everything he stands for, and everything he's been doing, both in United States, in the White House, and overseas,” he added.
Blanchard said he believes the result needs to be a landslide so the president cannot claim the election was rigged at the margins.
3 things to watch for in U.S. midterm elections
Turnout
For an off-year election, early voting has exceeded totals of previous midterm elections. So far, nearly 60 million people have voted in early person voting. States like Michigan and Ohio have already set records. These early numbers bode well for Democrats but now the pressure is on for Republicans to match or exceed those records with in-person turnout. If the GOP cannot match Democrats in turnout, they could see their control of congress fall to the opposition;
Response
The United States has an opportunity to send a clear and unmistakable message to the rest of the world that American democracy is healthy and vibrant with smooth, scandal-free election. However, should the turnout not favour Republicans, all eyes will be on the White House and U.S. President Donald Trump’s response if voters overwhelmingly reject his party. It is unclear if the administration will accept the results or fall into conspiracy theories à la Canadian interference or other outlandish claims ultimately undermining a key pillar of a working and stable democracy;
Trade
Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump both announced that negotiations between the two sides are back on again. Businesses, market watchers, and consumers will be eyeing talks intently post-election to see if a deal is on the horizon.
America at the crossroads (again)
It’s election day in America and millions of voters across the country are voting to determine not just who will lead their cities, counties and states but also who will control Congress.
Today’s races (hopefully) will answer many questions about the direction of the nation as well as the kind of country this once “shining city on the hill” wants to be going forward.
If early voting is any indication of where the mood and collective mindset of the U.S. stands, the people are motivated as they exercise their democratic freedoms to shape and mould their government from top to bottom.
No Chinese autos from Canada: Rogers
Rogers wants to ban any prospect of Chinese companies building cars in the U.S. and called it an “existential threat” during the Oct. 21 debate on WXYZ-TV Detroit.
“When they (China) talk about showing up, or they build them in Canada and try to talk to them about coming across the bridge, we need to stop that at the border,” he said.
In January, Canada agreed to allow China to export up to 49,000 EVs each year at a tariff rate of 6.1 per cent. If Chinese companies want to exceed that quota, they’ll need to meet Ottawa’s conditions and build a plant, Industry Minister Melanie Joly said in June.
Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Mike Rogers talks with a supporter as Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., left, and Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., right, appear during a campaign event Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, in Muskegon, Mich. . (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Lutnick's push for talks with Canada: sources
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose last-minute demands led to trade talks breaking down in August, has become the behind-the-scenes “driving force” pushing Canada and the U.S. to re-engage on a deal, multiple sources tell CTV News.
Sources in both countries say Lutnick initiated the re-engagement just over 10 days ago, after months of stasis, and has centred talks around the Section 232 tariffs that apply to steel, aluminum, lumber and autos because that is his purview.
These are tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump imposed using a section that allows him to justify them in the name of national security. The duties in place are up to 50 per cent on steel, aluminum and copper, 25 per cent on vehicles, an additional 10 per cent on softwood lumber, and 25 per cent on certain furniture and cabinetry.
Should more formalized negotiations pick back up later this week, as two sources say is a possibility, those talks could bring back into the fold U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer and involve elements outside of the Section 232 tariffs. Sources say that will likely include Keystone XL, diesel and energy exports more largely.
Vassy Kapelos, CTV News chief political correspondent, and Stephanie Ha, Ottawa News Bureau manager
Vassy Kapelos, CTV News chief political correspondent, and Stephanie Ha, Ottawa News Bureau manager
Which Senate races are competitive?
There are 35 Senate races today. Seven of them are considered toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan forecaster.
Those races include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
In addition, Minnesota and New Hampshire are leaning blue, while Nebraska and South Carolina lean red.
Will Democrats flip control?
Prior to Tuesday’s vote, the Republicans held a 53-47 majority.
To flip the Senate, Democrats need 51 seats to win control of the chamber, since Vice President JD Vance has a tiebreaker vote. That means they’ll need to hold all the seats they already have and win at least four more.
File: A U.S. Army veteran holds his ballot before placing it in a machine to vote in this undated file image. (AP Photo/David Goldman). (AP Photo/David Goldman)
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