(Bloomberg) -- Discussions among leaders of NATO countries at their summit in Washington on July 9-11 are likely to be colored by what’s at stake for the alliance in November’s US presidential election. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, raised alarms about his commitment to NATO when he was president from 2017 to 2021. More recently, he’s suggested he would not in all cases honor Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, the obligation of members to come to each other’s aid.
What’s the point of NATO?
Founded in 1949 to protect Europe against attack by the Soviet Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has come to represent a fundamental partnership between North America and Europe based on shared political and economic values. There were 12 original members. Membership grew to 32 nations when Sweden and Finland, which had bet that their national security was best protected by staying out, joined following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
What is Article 5?
It’s the pledge of collective defense that, according to NATO, “binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the alliance.” It establishes that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all. The pledge enhances the credibility of the organization’s deterrence strategy by increasing the risks for any potential aggressor.
The article has been activated just once, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The alliance used Airborne Warning and Control System planes to help patrol the skies over the US. That was followed by ship monitoring in the Mediterranean Sea, participation in the war in Afghanistan and the training of Iraqi soldiers.
Why is Trump’s candidacy a worry for NATO?
During his 2016 campaign, Trump alarmed US allies in Europe by suggesting the American commitment to defend fellow NATO countries should depend on whether their military spending was high enough. Trump’s complaint is that the US carries a disproportionate burden for NATO’s collective defense. The US spends 3.38% of its gross domestic product on defense, whereas the average among NATO’s other members is 2.02%, according to alliance figures.
European nations seeking a reassurance on the American commitment to NATO during Trump’s presidency were disappointed at a May 2017 Brussels summit, where he refused to offer an explicit endorsement of the alliance’s collective-defense clause. Two weeks later, in a press conference in Washington, Trump said he was “absolutely” committed to the clause.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump has again complained that some NATO members haven’t reached the official guideline of spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defense by this year. On Feb. 10, Trump said that if he became president again, he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to members that did not meet the guideline. In an interview the next month, Trump said he would defend NATO allies who have fulfilled their defense spending commitments. He characterized his stance as a form of negotiation.
Which NATO members don’t meet the spending guideline?
The eight countries not meeting the target, according to data released by NATO in June, are: Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. Iceland is a NATO member but is not included in the alliance’s defense spending calculations because of its lack of a standing army.
That makes 23 out of 32 members meeting the threshold, up from nine of 30 before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
NATO leaders committed to reaching the spending target at a summit in 2014 following Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. At the time, just three members were investing at least 2% of GDP on defense.
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