(Bloomberg) -- More people than ever are vying for one of the most dangerous political posts in Latin America: president of Peru.
A record 54 parties have filed paperwork to participate in presidential elections in 2026, according to elections tribunal JNE, in a country where every leader elected over the last three decades has been impeached, imprisoned or sought in criminal investigations.
The sheer number — more than the 18 hopefuls who ran in 2021 and the 10 who ran in in 2016 — raises the risk that candidates with very little popular support may face off in a second-round election, fueling uncertainty in a country where perennial political instability has finally begun to hurt the economy.
“There has never been anything like this,” said Fernando Tuesta, a professor of political science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru who led a government commission that redesigned the country’s electoral rules in 2019. “The outlook is not very promising.”
All of Peru’s living former presidents elected since 1990 have either been jailed or detained. Last year, three former presidents were detained at the same time in a facility specifically built for disgraced leaders.
Current President Dina Boluarte is facing an approval rating of just 5%, while navigating criminal investigations that range from illegal enrichment to genocide and surviving multiple impeachment motions. Peruvian law does not allow presidents to run for consecutive terms, so Boluarte will not appear on the ballot in 2026.
Splintered Votes
Peru has all but a handful of established political parties, with most groups being created before each electoral cycle and then disappearing shortly after. The country’s system is also unusual in Latin America for making candidates register so far in advance. According to Tuesta, the deadline has never been so early.
Recent legal changes are part of what’s turbocharging the number of parties hoping to run this time around, which can lead to a volatile result.
Ahead of last week’s deadline for candidates to register with a party to qualify for the 2026 election, a record 31 parties completed their paperwork while another 23 applications are pending.
When Tuesta led an electoral reform commission in 2019, the idea was to make it easier for parties to register but weed them out through open primaries inspired by Argentina’s political system. That way, there would be fewer presidential candidates to choose from on the actual ballot.
“It was supposed to be like an obstacles race,” Tuesta said. But Congress has since made changes to that reform, in practice eliminating the open primaries but leaving the lower threshold for party registration.
Peruvian elections usually go to a runoff between the top two candidates, and in 2021, the votes were already splintered: The top two candidates won just 32% of all votes, down from 61% in 2016 when there were fewer candidates. The fear is that with so many hopefuls potentially vying for office in 2026, the two most popular candidates could receive an even smaller share of the vote.
“This level of fragmentation will encourage opportunists while lowering the bar for candidates to reach a run-off vote,” said Nicholas Watson, managing director of political consultancy Teneo in a note to clients. Either scenario “could worsen political uncertainty.”
Heating Up
Electoral records indicate that a few of Peru’s disgraced ex-leaders may run again.
Former President Alberto Fujimori — sentenced for human rights violations before being released on a presidential pardon — is planning to run, according to his daughter. While Fujimori’s sentence bars him from running, congress could change the law to make him eligible.
Former Presidents Pedro Castillo and Alejandro Toledo are both in jail but haven’t been sentenced, so they are eligible to run. Both have recently registered with new political parties, records show. Former President Martin Vizcarra has been barred from running for the presidency again by congress, but he is appealing that decision.
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