(Bloomberg) -- The new ECBspeak Index from Bloomberg Economics suggests the Governing Council reached peak dovishness in the summer, making a rate cut on Thursday almost certain. What comes afterward is less clear. The index of policymaker sentiment — based on a natural language processing algorithm that used 54,000 Bloomberg news headlines on ECB speakers stretching back to 2011 — has moved sideways since June, with elevated wage growth and sticky services inflation limiting appetite for rapid easing. BE’s base case is that the ECB will keep rates unchanged in October and ease again in December. Data surprises could yet lead to back-to-back cuts.
Read the full research on the Bloomberg Terminal
--With assistance from Ana Galvao (Economist) and Joshua Danial.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
