(Bloomberg) -- The party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban slipped behind that of his upstart challenger Peter Magyar in a second opinion poll in as many days, pointing to a potentially close parliamentary election in 2026.
The survey by Publicus Institute published by Nepszava newspaper Thursday put support for Magyar’s Tisza party at 24% among the entire population, 1 percentage point ahead of the ruling Fidesz. The breakdown among decided voters was 39% for Tisza versus 37% for Fidesz. The poll was carried out between Oct. 11-18 among 1,000 people.
Another survey published on Wednesday showed a similar result, marking the first time Orban’s party lost its lead since before his return to power in 2010.
The latest signs that the opposition is gaining traction among voters are adding to domestic headwinds for Orban, who is already facing weak economic growth and a depreciating currency. Still, Tisza’s advantage remained within the margin of error, and surveys ahead of previous elections have shown false dawns for the prime minister’s rivals.
Nezopont Institute, a pollster close to the government, released its own data Thursday, showing a different picture. In that poll, Tisza was on course to get 35% of list votes, which Nezopont said trailed the 46% result for Fidesz. Among all eligible voters, it put Fidesz ahead at 36% versus 25% for Tisza. Two smaller parties would also clear the parliamentary threshold of 5%, it said.
Magyar, a 43-year-old former diplomat and Fidesz insider, has in recent months emerged as a serious challenger to Orban, the European Union’s longest-serving leader. Tisza surged to second place in European Parliament elections in June.
(Adds survey by pro-government pollster in the fifth paragraph.)
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