(Bloomberg) -- European leaders are growing concerned as a series of votes on the region’s eastern periphery test a decades-long march toward Western integration and Vladimir Putin’s longstanding attempt to halt it.
Election contests over the last month in Moldova, Georgia — and even European Union member state Bulgaria — have showcased Russia’s effort to reverse the westward tide. In addition to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, Putin’s hybrid campaign to exploit divisions in countries once in the Soviet orbit has been making gains.
Moldova’s pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, faces a tough reelection bid on Sunday after a referendum to join the bloc was approved by voters by only a slim majority this month. In Georgia, the opposition condemned a parliamentary election as rigged after the Moscow-aligned ruling party declared victory. Thousands have gathered to protest in Tbilisi.
EU officials condemned what they called interference in the affairs of both countries, which are candidates to join the 27-member bloc.
Compounding tensions is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who caught his EU counterparts off guard by visiting Georgia this week to congratulate the ruling Georgian Dream party and urged the government in Tbilisi to ignore criticism from the EU.
He drew swift condemnation from a group of EU member states, which called the visit “premature” and asserted that Orban, who holds the bloc’s six-month rotating presidency, didn’t represent the EU.
The dynamic shows fading hopes in former Soviet republics that had firm designs on Western integration just a decade ago. Clear majorities in Moldova and Georgia have voiced support for Europe, but influence operations from Moscow have played on divisions to halt the processes.
Slim Margin
A parade of EU leaders traveled to Moldova’s capital Chisinau in the weeks before the Oct. 20 referendum, offering their backing for what polls showed was solid support for the country’s integration.
But the unexpectedly close margin in favor — the “yes” vote came in at 50.5% — was viewed as a setback to the government’s EU agenda. Sandu blasted what she called Russian interference, including allegations of paying off some 150,000 voters — a “fraud of unprecedented scale.”
Moscow has repeatedly rejected allegations of interference. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov this month said Sandu should “present evidence” of tampering.
In Georgia, the ruling party has polarized the public even as it asserts that it stands by the Caucasus republic’s EU ambitions — while making inroads to Moscow. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili slammed Saturday’s election as rigged after Georgian Dream declared victory with 54% of the vote.
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called for an investigation in Georgia of the “irregularities, pressure and intimidation on voters impacting public trust in the process, reported by observers.”
Diplomatic Freelancing
The sentiment was contradicted by Orban’s diplomatic freelancing, which came a week before the Hungarian leader was to host an EU summit in Budapest.
Some leaders had considered boycotting the meeting, even though it’ll be the first in-person gathering after the US presidential election.
One senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that a collective no-show would only expose the bloc’s divisions and play into the hands of Orban.
It would be smarter for leaders to show up and isolate Orban in the room at the summit, while advancing a collective agenda on issues ranging from competitiveness, EU enlargement and the Middle East, the official said.
But Russia’s looming presence can be found elsewhere within the bloc. In Bulgaria, which held its seventh election since 2021 on Sunday, the far-right Revival party, which echoes Kremlin talking points and wants the country to exit NATO, has seen a fourfold growth in its support in the past four years.
The party came a close third in Bulgaria, behind the two main pro-European parties. Support for various pro-Russian and anti-establishment parties has gradually grown, accounting for about a third of votes on Sunday.
Goran Georgiev, an analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, said years of weakness in the rule of law and systemic corruption have bred cynicism and made the Black Sea nation a rife ground for Kremlin propaganda. The tendency applies to a broader shift regionally, he said.
“The goalpost internationally keeps moving toward more authoritarian and ultra-conservative policies,” which pushes traditionally liberal parties to the right, Georgiev said. “The lack of leadership, not just in Bulgaria, but also in Europe, opens the door for such ideas.”
--With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Slav Okov, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Helena Bedwell, Jorge Valero and Lina Grau.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
