(Bloomberg) -- When he was president, Donald Trump sought to ban people from seven predominantly Muslim nations from entering the US. More recently, he has stood shoulder to shoulder with Israel’s prime minister and used the word Palestinian as an insult.
And yet he is having some success courting Muslim and Arab American voters in the battleground state of Michigan as he pursues the White House once again.
Over the weekend, Trump gained the endorsements of Bill Bazzi, the first Muslim and Arab American mayor of Dearborn Heights and a Detroit-area imam. That was after another mayor — Hamtramck’s Amer Ghalib — also backed him earlier in the month.
“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace,” the imam, Belal Alzuhiry, said at a rally for the Republican presidential nominee in a Detroit suburb on Saturday. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.”
When a reporter asked Alzuhiry why he was getting behind Trump in spite of the Republican’s prior actions against Muslims and support for Israel, the imam said he didn’t want to focus on the past.
“The fact that he is meeting us, he is listening to us attentively, I think this is a good gesture,” Alzuhiry told WXYZ 7 News Detroit. “And this is something we can build upon.”
Such endorsements for Trump hint at the depth and complexity of his rival Kamala Harris’ challenge with Arab American voters, who are a sizable voting bloc in a state where there are more than 300,000 people of Middle Eastern or North African descent.
It’s also an example of how foreign policy is shaping up to be pivotal in the presidential contest in that state. In addition to its Arab American and Muslim population, Michigan is home to more than 100,000 Jewish adults and almost 600,000 Polish Americans who are old enough to vote.
Those communities — and their views of overseas conflicts – will matter in a match-up where even tiny shifts in support could tip the race. President Joe Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes in 2020, and Trump took it by less than 11,000 votes in 2016. Harris is ahead by 3 points among likely voters in the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, a lead that is within the statistical margin of error.
Polls repeatedly identify the economy, immigration and abortion as top concerns of the electorate across the US, including in Michigan, with wars in Gaza and Ukraine far down the priority list. But in the fight for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, the campaigns are trying to ensure geopolitical issues don’t cost them a win.
Doug Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, recently campaigned in suburban Southfield, pressing Jewish voters for their support. Emhoff, who’s Jewish, delivered the message that Harris backs Israel and accused Trump of fomenting antisemitism. “He does not care about us.”
Last week, in a theater in a wealthy suburb of Detroit, Harris appeared with Republican Liz Cheney, a foreign policy hawk, and criticized Trump’s approach to Russia and Ukraine. “If Donald Trump were president, Vladimir Putin will be sitting in Kyiv,” Harris warned, in a message that might have particular relevance to the state’s 40,000 residents of Ukrainian descent and its Polish American population.
Cheney isn’t just a hawk — the family name is synonymous with the Iraq war, and so her support for Harris makes some progressives and Arab Americans uncomfortable.
“This is a Jenga game in Michigan,” said Richard Czuba, founder of pollster Glengariff Group. “It’s going to be that close. There are a million different factors and any one of them can change how this plays out.”
Uncommitted Movement
Israel and the war in Gaza have loomed large in parts of Michigan since Hamas fighters attacked the Jewish state in October 2023, killing 1,200 and taking hundreds of hostages. The attack prompted retaliatory Israeli strikes that have killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory, which doesn’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.
In Michigan’s Muslim and Arab communities – which have voted 3-to-1 in favor of Democrats for the past 20 years — deep misgivings have taken hold about the US’s response the conflict.
Arab and Muslim community leaders in the state have criticized the Biden administration, saying it hasn’t put enough pressure on Israel by curbing arms sales to the Jewish state. They also believe the US should have done more to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians who have been displaced by the war in Gaza.
That helped sow the Uncommitted Movement, whose participants threatened back in February to sit out the election if Biden didn’t take a tougher stand. The community is now divided, with some thinking Trump would end the war, others thinking Harris would steer things better and still others feeling marginalized by both parties, said Kassem Ali-Ahmed, vice chairman of the Michigan Muslim Community Council.
“There is a feeling of abandonment not just by the current administration, but by anyone who claims to represent fairness in government,” Ali-Ahmed said. “Some say third party is the way to go to show that we won’t be ignored.”
When Harris succeeded Biden at the top of the ticket, Arab and Muslim groups were hoping to hear more firm commitments to press Israel to end the war.
Harris’ campaign has told Arab American leaders that she would push for a quick end to conflict in the Middle East and bring aid to Gaza, but it hasn’t come with detailed plans, said Osama Siblani, publisher of Arab American News in Dearborn and co-founder of the Arab American PAC.
A campaign spokeswoman pointed out that three Hamtramck city council members and Emgage Action, an advocacy organization for Muslim Americans, endorsed Harris. She also has garnered the support of some community leaders, like Assad Turfe, deputy executive of Wayne County, which includes Detroit. Turfe said he has been holding small meetings with Arab and Muslim Americans to make the case that the Democrats supported the community after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, when Muslims often were subject to discrimination in the US, and that Harris will be a better option than Trump.
But other key groups have declined to endorse, and there are potential warning signs for Harris about her level of support among Arab American and Muslim voters.
A YouGov poll fielded about a month ago found that Trump had 45% support nationwide among Arab Americans, slightly more than the 43% for Harris.
An August survey of Muslim voters nationwide by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a civil rights group in Washington, found Harris tied with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 29% support each. Stein has registered scant support among the US electorate overall.
Siblani said he won’t endorse anyone on the top of the ticket. He said Harris hasn’t done enough to help the Palestinian people, but Trump is also not a viable option for Arab Americans.
”I won’t meet with anyone from the Trump or Harris campaigns,” Siblani said. “It’s done. I like Jill Stein but she doesn’t exist after Nov. 5.”
Both campaigns claim they will better safeguard Michigan’s diverse communities.
“Vice President Harris is ready to be Commander in Chief on day one,” campaign spokeswoman Morgan Finkelstein said. “She will never waver in defense of America’s security and ideals, ensuring that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump won’t keep us safe. He sides with dictators, praises Putin, and weakened our alliances.”
The Trump campaign sought to blame the White House for overseas turmoil.
“The Harris-Biden Administration’s failed foreign policy has brought death, chaos, and war to the Middle East and Europe,” said Brian Hughes, a Trump campaign senior adviser, said in an emailed statement. “Only President Trump will restore peace and stability, and he will protect religious freedom for all Americans, as he did in his first term.”
Jewish Community
There is little polling data on Jewish voters in Michigan, but Democrats have been moving to protect that typically loyal constituency. Trump has aggressively sought to peel away some of these voters, portraying himself as a steadfast friend of Israel and seeking to cast the Democratic party as captive to pro-Palestinian causes.
At times, he has undermined those overtures with insults, such as when he said Jewish voters “should have their head examined” if they back Democrats.
The same day that Emhoff rallied Jewish voters Michigan, Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres of New York held another event at a private home that was aimed at reaching undecided Jewish voters who were thinking of not voting for Democratic candidates and are anxious about the party’s progressive wing. Torres moved to assure attendees that Harris won’t be swayed by the far left, said Laura Hearshen, secretary of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus, who attended both events. Emhoff went further, Hearshen said.
“He said Kamala wanted him to do a task force on antisemitism and that she was pro-Israel before she met him,” Hearshen said.
Another purpose of the two events was to dispel things voters may have seen on social media, said Michigan State Senator Jeremy Moss, a Democrat who was at both meetings.
“Republicans send disinformation into the Jewish community saying Kamala supports Hamas,” Moss said. “She is firm that Hamas started this war, that hostages have to come home and that Israel has a right to defend itself.”
Polish Americans for Harris
One bright spot for Harris: Many of Michigan’s Polish American voters are expressing concern about Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and what that might mean for Ukraine and Poland, according to the Piast Institute, a research group focused on Polish American affairs.
After New York and Illinois, Michigan has the third-largest Polish American population. This group nationwide has narrowly favored Democrats in every presidential election since 2008, according to Piast research.
The Harris campaign has reached out to Polish and Ukrainian Americans. In early October, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO Wesley Clark traveled across Michigan to meet with Ukrainian and Albanian Americans, making the case that Harris will better safeguard Eastern Europe from Russia.
The war in Ukraine has only strengthened that support, said Dominik Stecula, a Piast fellow and an assistant professor at Ohio State University who has researched Polish American political activity. Piast research shows that 70% of Polish American voters support NATO, 60% view Trump’s relationship with Putin as problematic and that they view Russia as America’s greatest adversary. Most Americans see China as a greater threat, he said.
“Trump will have a problem with the block of Eastern European voters,” said Glengariff’s Czuba.
In the presidential debate, Harris argued that Trump would enable Putin to take Kyiv, which could be a starting point to invade Poland and the rest of Europe. Trump countered the accusation by following the debate with an appearance on a Polish outlet, in which he assured his support.
Harris’ message resonates with Elizabeth Urban, who was born in Michigan to Polish immigrants and moved to Poland in 1991, returning six years ago. She said she leans conservative and likes Trump’s message of small government. In past elections, she has voted for Republicans George W. Bush and John McCain.
But not this cycle.
”I don’t trust Trump,” said Urban, 72. “Trump wouldn’t care about Poland like he doesn’t care about Ukraine. He will make a deal and Putin would end up with stronger power.”
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
