(Bloomberg) -- Romanians abroad had already started casting their ballots for a new president when the country’s top judiciary decided to cancel the election, and voting even continued for three hours before being halted. Now, like people at home, they’re left wondering what’s coming next.
The shock decision by the Constitutional Court on Friday to void the first round and scrap Sunday’s runoff added a new layer of drama that will now likely entrench the divisions exposed over the past two weeks. What will follow is a fresh showdown between the political mainstream and the far-right, disruptive forces it’s been trying to stop. Prosecutors on Saturday already set the wheels into motion, raiding several houses of those suspected of illegal funding for a presidential candidate as part of the investigation into what happened during the campaign.
While countries like Moldova and Georgia have become battlegrounds in recent months, few, if anybody, had predicted what’s been unfolding in Romania. In the European Union member and a critical linchpin on NATO’s eastern flank, establishment parties had produced a period of stability of late.
Earlier in the week, the same court had validated the results of the Nov. 24 ballot, which saw far-right newcomer Calin Georgescu emerge from seemingly nowhere to score a surprise victory and knock out Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister who was seeking to become head of state.
Some now see the ruling as the last gasp of a discredited elite eager to prevent a man who has praised Vladimir Putin and espoused various conspiracy theories from taking a key position. For others, it’s a drastic, but necessary move to fend off Kremlin-inspired anti-EU groups that have emerged as the biggest political threat across the region.
The judges ordered the rerun following allegations of Russian meddling by the Supreme Defense Council, a body chaired by the president that oversees the military and intelligence agencies.
The US State Department reacted to the developments, saying it trusts Romania's democratic institutions and the nation's right to investigate foreign interference. “The integrity of Romania’s elections is paramount for the nation’s hard-earned democracy,'' said Matthew Miller, the department spokesperson in an emailed statement. “We call on all parties to uphold Romania’s constitutional order and engage in a peaceful democratic process free from threats of violence and intimidation and which reflects the Romanian people’s democratic will,” Miller said.
The decision, the first of its kind in Romania’s history, was “disastrous” and will “greatly strengthen Eurosceptic politicians,” said Kamil Calus, an expert on Romania at OSW, a Warsaw-based think tank. It might stop Georgescu becoming president, but guarantees that a far-right leader will make it to the next presidential election, he said.
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Georgescu called the ruling a “sham” and declared that he will keep on fighting with God on his side. “The corrupt system in Romania made a deal with the devil,” he said, adding that the “elites” are trying to keep him away from the presidency like they tried with Donald Trump in the US. Romania's main far right party, known as AUR, said it will file a complaint on Sunday to the country's high court to annul the constitutional court decision to scrap the ballot, joining a similar move by Georgescu. They all said the decision is a "coup" and an abuse of the current establishment.
Elena Lasconi, the leader of an opposition party who came second in the first round and became the figurehead for the pro-EU mainstream, also lamented the court’s decision and said she would have won had the vote gone ahead.
“I can’t believe they actually did that just to take Georgescu out of the race,” said Petru, a Romanian living in Milan. The 43-year-old, who declined to be identified by his last name, went to vote but was refused a ballot paper. “This is so strange and I think it will make people support him even more. It’s clear that the system doesn’t want him.”
The emergence of Georgescu, a 62-year-old agricultural engineer who wants to halt aid for Ukraine, sparked alarm in Romania and beyond. Relatively unknown, he was powered by a TikTok campaign and declared no funding to the electoral authorities. He polled low single digits before garnering 23% in the first round.
The Constitutional Court revealed it canceled the vote because of evidence provided by the intelligence services that showed it was manipulated through various means, including unbalanced social media exposure toward one candidate, which it didn’t name.
When he won, Georgescu attributed his victory to people answering a “calling.” The Romanian authorities, though, suspected foul play. Two days after the first round’s result was validated, the security council published its report alleging Russian interference. Georgescu said he was only helped by volunteers and has no connection to Russia.
Yet there are underlying issues in Romania that point to a dynamic that’s become more prevalent in Europe and propelled Trump in the US. Georgescu’s rise reflected a deeper discontent with widening inequality within Romania and an economy on the downturn, as well as the culture war over such things as LGBTQ rights and the environment.
This year marked a breakthrough for Romania’s far-right parties, which drew voters with populist and protectionist promises. In parliamentary elections on Dec. 1, mainstream parties managed to hold off the challenge. But it took five pro-European groups to join forces to keep the far right out of power.
The chaos is set to continue, and what happens next is anybody’s guess. A new government must set a date for the presidential election, meaning that vote is likely to be held early next year. The rerun could also involve a new roster of contenders. Klaus Iohannis, the incumbent whose second, five-year term had been slated to end on Dec. 21, will remain until the new ballot is held.
Indeed, for some voters, the decision was a necessary last resort. Laurentiu-Andrei Oltei, a 23-year-old student who lives in Paris, said he was on his sofa texting a friend, organizing how and when to go and vote together. Ten minutes later, a response came: “Never mind.”
Oltei said the court was right because it upheld the rule of law. “No reasonable person” could believe that Georgescu’s election feat was achieved without interference, he said.
--With assistance from Andra Timu.
(Updates with prosecutors’ raid, State Department comment from third paragraph.)
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