(Bloomberg) -- West African leaders gave Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso six months to reconsider a withdrawal from the regional economic bloc in a final attempt to avoid its fracture.
The junta-led nations were given a grace period until July from their scheduled Jan. 29 exit to allow mediators more time to convince them to stay in the Economic Community of West African States, the bloc’s President Omar Touray said following a summit in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Sunday.
“It’s unlikely that they’re going to change their minds, unless there is a change of government in those three countries or potential civilian governments that might be more amenable, which is possibly why Ecowas is giving them six months,” Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst with Control Risks told Bloomberg TV.
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso’s governments have succumbed to coups in recent years. In January, they announced plans to pull out of Ecowas — a 49-year-old regional bloc that shares a common currency, bond market and free movement of goods and people in western Africa — and collaborate within the recently formed Alliance of Sahel States, or AES.
The move came after West African leaders imposed economic and financial sanctions on Niger to try to reverse a July 2023 military takeover. The regional bloc also threatened a military invasion to reinstate the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum.
AES enabled the junta leaders to deflect Ecowas pressure to return to civilian rule, according to Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Sahel project. “The creation of the alliance has offered an alternative that they believe will serve them better,” he said in an online briefing last week.
Ecowas can either try and reverse the withdrawal — the most ambitious option — or seek to negotiate an exit that limits the impact on both sides and facilitates a smooth return when tensions ease, Ibrahim said.
The landlocked Sahel states all rely on ports in coastal countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana and Senegal to export goods. While an exit is unlikely to halt all trade — many goods are shipped using informal routes and there are other agreements that allow for free movement — it might constrain regional integration and security cooperation.
The three countries will remain “a visa-free area for all nationals” from Ecowas states, Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said on the eve of the summit.
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are among countries worst hit by terrorism, with the growing insecurity also impacting their neighbors. All three have ended security cooperation with longstanding partners France and the US and moved closer to nations including Russia, Iran and Turkey.
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