For many Albertans, Canada’s looming election looks like a long-sought opportunity suddenly snatched away.
Conservatives dominate the oil-rich province, and for months, one of their own — Calgary-born Pierre Poilievre — held a commanding lead to become Canada’s next prime minister. Frustrated with the Liberal government’s climate policies, they saw in Poilievre someone who would ease regulations, boost fossil fuels — and finally give Alberta the respect from Ottawa it deserved.
Then U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade war and threatened to make Canada the 51st state. Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney now seems poised to win Monday’s election, and Albertans who had hoped for a better relationship with the federal government fear it could get worse. Some even warn a Carney win could fuel the province’s simmering secession movement. A recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute found 30% of Albertans say they would favour leaving Canada to form their own country following a Liberal win.
“It would be very unfortunate for our country if we saw another Liberal government elected,” said Alberta financier Tim Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Calgary’s Auspice Capital Advisors, who describes himself as a proud western Canadian. “This is a time when our country needs to be working together, but I think it will further pull us apart. I’m not a separatist, but I can definitely see where people are hitting the wall on this issue.”
Already, Alberta’s firebrand premier, Danielle Smith, has issued Carney a list of nine demands focused on the oil industry. Failure to address them promptly would spark an “unprecedented national unity crisis,” she warned.
This place of vast prairies and saw-toothed mountains has long defined itself in opposition to Canada’s eastern provinces and the federal government. Alberta’s oil reserves — among the world’s largest — make it one of the country’s primary economic engines, with the province accounting for 25% of Canada’s exports. At the same time, its relatively wealthy and young population means Alberta receives less money from the federal government than it contributes in taxes. The Finances of the Nation project, which tracks public spending, put the difference at $17.8 billion (US$12.9 billion) in 2023.
“There’s certainly redistribution going on, but that’s not uncommon in any large, diverse country,” said Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary professor who helps manage the project.
It’s not just the redistribution, however, that rankles Albertans. Many feel the federal government’s climate and environmental policies have choked the province’s growth. “A majority segment of Albertans believe that the government of Canada does not operate in the best interests of Alberta, that they’re operating in the best interests of Ontario and Quebec,” said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Calgary’s Mount Royal University.
They also look with envy at the way French-speaking Quebec has been able to wrest concessions from the federal government by threatening to secede. Both provinces want more autonomy, although for different reasons.
“The Quebec argument really is about language and culture,” Bratt said. “Alberta, when you break it all down, it’s about money. There’s a fundamental belief that if you have more money, you should have more powers.”
Conservative Poilievre espouses a free-market, small-government ideology that plays well in Alberta. Liberal Carney has deep local ties as well, having grown up in the province’s capital of Edmonton. He played up those links on the campaign trail, including his passion for the Edmonton Oilers hockey team. “I owe everything to this city,” he said in March during an Edmonton event. “It’s the place that shaped my understanding of our great nation.”
And yet to some, Carney’s resume as a former head of central banks for Canada and the United Kingdom (as well as former chair of Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg Inc.) makes him the embodiment of the country’s eastern elite. His response to Smith’s list suggests a willingness to work with Alberta, even if differences remain. For example, with Trump threatening trade relations, Carney says he is committed to building pipelines and trade corridors for Canadian oil — one of Smith’s top demands. But he has also said there is a role for keeping a cap on climate-warming emissions from oil and gas operations, something she insists he scrap.
Smith, like many Alberta leaders, ran on a platform of pushing back against Ottawa but took it to new levels once in office. Her government’s first piece of legislation after taking over in 2022 was the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, which seeks to prevent political entities in the province from following federal rules her government deems harmful to the province. Bratt called it “separation light.”
Smith even acted as her own head of state, travelling to Mar-a-Lago in January to meet with Trump before his inauguration. As the trade war intensified, however, she has spoken out about the need for Canada to find new markets for its products, one of Carney’s key goals. Last week, she emphasized working together, saying the country can use its electricity, oil, uranium and food to negotiate a new, fair deal with Trump.
“Canada as a whole has a lot of leverage,” she said, in response to a question from Bloomberg. “I think we’ve been able to make the case that Canada and the U.S. enjoy a special relationship that leads to benefits for both nations.”
While Trump’s threats have spurred many Canadians to band together in response — touting national unity and boycotting American products — secession retains its appeal for some Albertans. Colin Krieger, former head of the now-defunct Maverick Party, said he’d prefer to see Alberta stay in Canada, but only if the federal government makes changes to improve the province’s standing. That could include giving the Senate more power, having more western Canadians on the Supreme Court and removing the equalization program that sends Alberta’s money to other provinces. A Carney win Monday, he said, would likely lead to a separation referendum.
“If he does win, there will be a massive push in Alberta for alternative arrangements politically, be it independence or perhaps the 51st state even,” said Krieger, 52, whose town of Valleyview lies a three-hour drive northwest of Edmonton.
Asked recently about the possibility of a separation vote, Smith ruled out a government-led referendum while noting the province allows citizen-led ballot measures. She also promised a panel to plan Alberta’s response to the election results. But taking an antagonistic approach to Carney would carry risks at a time when so many Canadians want unity.
“At this point, given the rise in national attachment sentiment, I think she’s flying close to the sun,” said Lori Turnbull, a professor at Dalhousie University. “Some people in Alberta might think that this is the time to try to make sure they get what’s rightfully ours. But there’s also a much broader sense that we’re all supposed to be coming together now.”
Kevin Orland, Bloomberg News
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