Prime Minister Mark Carney is departing for a nearly week-long trip to the United Arab Emirates and South Africa on Tuesday evening and is aiming to return with deeper diplomatic ties, as well as new trade and investment agreements.
It is Carney’s first official visit to both countries since becoming prime minister, and senior government officials who briefed reporters on the prime minister’s travel plans – on the condition they are not named – said the overall intention is to deepen partnerships and attract capital to Canada.
“Carney will meet with fellow leaders and with business representatives to advance trade priorities and to promote Canada’s efforts in key areas for growth, including energy security, critical minerals and artificial intelligence,” said one official.
In the newly and narrowly passed federal budget, the prime minister declared his intention to double non-U.S. exports in the next decade, and the destinations Carney will be visiting represent two of the world’s largest emerging markets.
The focus in Abu Dhabi
The first leg of the prime minister’s trip is to Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital, where his focus will be on expanding the bilateral economic partnership in key sectors and accelerating new deals.
Senior government officials say Carney has plans to meet privately with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
That meeting is set to be an historic moment in the countries’ more than 50-year long relationship, as Carney will be the first Canadian prime minister to visit since 1983, when Pierre Trudeau went, bringing a then-young Justin Trudeau with him.
“A stop in Abu Dhabi, especially on the way to the G20, signals that the Canadian government sees the UAE as both a strong bilateral partner and a strategic gateway to the wider Middle East, Africa, and South Asia region,” said former Canadian ambassador to the UAE Marcy Grossman.
“It also reflects that the UAE is a major global investor. Canada needs reliable, long-term investment for our own nation-building projects… Meeting Emirati leaders and sovereign wealth funds in person is how you unlock those opportunities.”
While in Abu Dhabi – what has been described as an aspiring global financial hub – Carney will also be meeting with the UAE’s Industry and Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the heads of several major investment funds, and will deliver a keynote speech to a business crowd.
The goal of these face-to-face meetings, officials said, is to increase market access for Canadian exporters and attract private capital to help build Canada’s major infrastructure and other nation-building projects.
Senior government officials said they have been negotiating with the UAE for some time towards a Foreign Investment Protection Agreement (FIPA) but wouldn’t say how likely it’ll be that it gets across the finish line during this trip.
Last year, Canada’s two-way trade with the UAE was valued at $3.4 billion, with $2.6 billion in exports, and more than 150 Canadian companies have an operational presence in the UAE.
A potential challenge for Carney, Grossman said, is that while Canada and its companies have a strong reputation in the UAE the two-way relationship has “not yet reached its full potential.” She said Canada has been slower than other G7 partners to engage at the highest levels or move quickly on commercial opportunities.”
“We have goodwill and credibility, but we do not always follow through with the speed and consistency the Emiratis expect,” she told CTV News.
‘Substantial’ agreements in South Africa?
After Carney concludes his few days in the UAE, the Airbus will be wheels-up for South Africa. Landing in Johannesburg – considered the ‘engine’ of the country – the prime minister has plans for a bilateral meeting with President Cyril Ramaphosa as soon as Friday.
During their talk – picking back up on where the two may have left off during their time in Kananaskis – the prime minister is expected to pitch strengthening trade ties with a focus on the natural resource, agriculture, critical mineral, and advanced technology sectors.
Senior government officials say Canada is going in to that conversation hopeful about delivering on “a quite ambitious” series of commitments.
Stopping short of offering any indication of what those deliverables could be – with The Canadian Press reporting talks of a deal to boost bilateral trade and see more South African wine on Canadian shelves in exchange for gas exports – one official said: “I think we will have a very substantial package.”
Last year, two-way trade between Canada and South Africa totalled $2.9 billion.
Aid groups lobbying Canada
The Global Fund Replenishment will be taking place while Carney is on the continent. And aid groups are antsy, in light of the federal budget stating Canada will be returning its international development assistance to a pre-pandemic level.
The replenishment of the fund to fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria – diseases that kill an estimated 2.4 million people every year – is expected to be a pared-down affair this year in light of the dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
Still, groups have been lobbying Carney to pledge it’s “fair share” pegging that at $1.3 billion, while calling anything less than the $1.2 billion Carney’s predecessor pledged, would be a cut to a crucial aid program.
“What COVID showed us is that we are one pandemic away, we are one flight away, we are one global event away from somebody else’s health problem becoming our own,” said ONE Campaign’s policy lead in Johannesburg Olawunmi Ola-Busari.
“And so we need to think of this as a collective action problem, and so an opportunity to co-invest in our health security as a globe and not just as individual states.”
Asked Monday, officials said they are “very conscious” of the Global Fund meeting taking place and asserted Canada remains committed to maintaining its leadership position but would not weigh in on what dollar figure could be committed.
Carney’s first G20 as PM
Carney will be rounding out his trip attending the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, looking to build on the priorities Canada held throughout its G7 presidency year.
Taking place over Saturday and Sunday, it will be his first time taking part in a G20 since becoming prime minister and is also the first time the major global forum is being held on the African continent.
With the Group of 20 encompassing 85 per cent of the world’s economy and more than 75 per cent of global trade, senior government officials said the Canadian delegation, which will include Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, is focused on encouraging the mobilization of global private capital.
This year’s theme is “solidarity, equality, sustainability” and Carney intends to contribute to the sessions he intends to attend, by pressing for co-operation on shared priorities such as clean energy, sustainable finance, global emissions reductions, and disaster and wildfire responses, according to officials.
However, the notable absences from the G20 mean Carney and the other world leaders attending will be speaking to a slightly smaller table. U.S. President Donald Trump is not attending, nor are the top officials from Argentina, Mexico, China, or Russia.
Carney’s other bilateral meetings?
The American boycott is largely based on widely discredited claims Afrikaners – a white minority group in South Africa – are being persecuted, as well as displeasure over some of the topics set to be discussed.
Earlier this month while speaking at a business forum in Miami, Trump declared that “South Africa shouldn’t even be in the Gs anymore,” a comment Ramaphosa has brushed off, vowing a successful summit before the U.S. takes over the rotating presidency in 2026.
On the sidelines of the summit, Carney is angling to have a series of bilateral meetings with other leaders attending. Officials aren’t saying at this stage of “frenetic scheduling” which countries may be on that “substantial” list.
In the lead-up to the summit, local media report there has been a major beautification effort undertaken in Johannesburg, seeing streets repaved, lights fixed, and landscaping done along the roads the VIPs’ motorcades will traverse.
“For Canada, the G20 remains an absolutely crucial body, especially at a moment when we’re grappling with change on the scale that we are grappling with at the moment,” the senior government official said.
