With a green light from the federal government, Alberta hopes to begin construction on a new oil pipeline as early as fall 2027, with oil flowing by 2033-34. But, there remains no clear private sector investor to pay for it.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith met in Calgary Friday to sign an updated deal. It outlines that the federal government will work towards designating the pipeline a project of national interest by Oct. 1, 2026, with a date of Sept. 1, 2027, for potential construction approval.
As reported earlier, the deal also lowers the effective carbon price for Alberta to $130-a-tonne by 2040, instead of 2030 as previously laid out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the pair in November. That deal originally laid out conditions for the new pipeline to the West Coast.
The province estimates the new pricing will save the industry about $250 billion by 2050.
Friday’s deal includes headline carbon benchmarks of $115-a-tonne in 2030, $130 by 2035 and $140 by 2040. Alberta’s headline carbon price is currently set at $95-a-tonne.
That headline price is different from the effective price. The effective carbon price is the market value of carbon credits and offsets under Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) system, which allows producers to buy credits to offset their cost.
The deal also lays out that Alberta will regulate a minimum transfer price, or price floor, for TIER credits starting in 2030.
Federal and Alberta government officials provided information to reporters ahead of the Smith-Carney signing on background on a not-for-attribution basis.
A provincial government official said they’d like to see the new pipeline to be up and running by “no later” than 2033-34.
But there are no answers about whether a private proponent is in the offing.
When asked if Alberta expects to have a private sector proponent by the July 1 deadline to submit its proposal to the Major Projects Office, a provincial official said “stay tuned” and that “work continues.”
An official said Alberta is currently the proponent for the application, and it will remain the proponent up until the province provides its submission to the Major Projects Office by July 1, promising more details after.
Friday’s deal also stipulates the federal government will fully respect Canada’s duty to “consult obligations with Indigenous Peoples,” both as it works to name the pipeline a project of national interest and as it determines conditions for construction and development.
The agreement echoes the prime minister’s promise Thursday of “no Pathways, no pipeline,” with both parties agreeing that building an oil pipeline and building the carbon capture Pathways Project are mutually dependent.
Yet Friday’s agreement doesn’t specify any conditions for Pathways to be up and running before or alongside pipeline construction. A government official said that’s up to separate conversations between the two governments and Pathways that “will continue in the comings weeks to finalize” a separate deal.
Earlier this month, the companies behind the Pathways Project, now known as the Oil Sands Alliance, wrote in a press release that “the pace of change has been too slow,” and urged the federal and provincial governments to “urgently reform their regulatory and fiscal frameworks.”
British Columbia’s Premier David Eby said Thursday he wants his province to get as much attention as its eastern neighbour.
The language in Friday’s deal has Canada and Alberta talking to B.C. “immediately in a trilateral discussion on the pipeline application,” during potential development and construction, and “to further the economic interests of British Columbia related to their own projects of interest that involve the Province of Alberta, including interties.”
On Friday, a federal government official said there has already been “engagement” with B.C.
An Alberta official wouldn’t directly answer whether the province has agreed to any revenue sharing with B.C. as part of the agreement, but said the province is “open to other conversations with British Columbia about how to enable local and especially Indigenous benefits through the course of this project.”
With files from CTV News’ Spencer Van Dyk and Rob Buffam
