PM Carney urges Edmonton crowd to remain in Canada ahead of Alberta referendum

Prime Minister Mark Carney wrapped up his two-day, pro-Canada barnstorming tour of Alberta by rallying with thousands of supporters in his hometown.

It was a party-like atmosphere at the Forever Canadian rally in Edmonton.
Supporters dressed in all manner of Maple Leaf gear jammed bleachers, danced, waved Canadian flags and erupted in cheers to a song promising Canada will never be the 51st U.S. state.

Carney, in his speech, again implored Albertans to vote to keep the province in Canada, arguing that a vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that could lead to years of lost opportunities.

The majority of respondents to a new online survey believe Alberta should not be holding a referendum on separation from Canada, according to polling conducted by Abacus Data for the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL).

The survey, conducted between Oct. 7 and 13, found 56 per cent of respondents believe the referendum should not be held, compared with 30 per cent who support going to the polls.

Among respondents who voted UCP in the last provincial election, 44 per cent said the referendum should not take place, while 47 per cent supported holding it.

Political scientist Lori Williams said the findings raise questions about the political consequences for Smith, regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

“The bigger question for Danielle Smith going forward, even if she were to win on all of these questions, is the reality that (the) majority of Albertans didn’t want this referendum,” Williams said.

Albertans still have time to vote in the referendum, but separatists aren’t waiting to take action against Premier Danielle Smith.

Regardless of how the vote goes, some separatists are rallying to oust her.

“Danielle Smith can’t be trusted. She’s completely untrustworthy,” said Jeffrey Rath, a prominent voice in the separatist movement.

The UCP says Smith holds a 91 per cent approval rating and nearly 50 constituency associations have supported her leadership. There is an annual general meeting set for next month in Calgary, and a leadership review is not on the agenda.

Separatist leaders are also urging voters to “decline the nine,” because they say Smith shouldn’t be trusted, especially when it comes to her handling of the federal government.

“Danielle Smith is completely incompetent to lead the province of Alberta. She’s telling everybody to vote against our own best negotiating position against (Prime Minister) Mark Carney,” said Rath.

Just days ahead of Alberta’s referendum, members of the province’s governing party are split on how they’ll vote on the separation question. 

Premier Danielle Smith has said she will vote to remain, while UCP MLA Jason Stephan has publicly confirmed he voted in favour of moving toward a future independence referendum.

Melanee Thomas, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, said Albertans have received little of the public debate they would typically expect from elected officials ahead of a major political decision.

“Have we seen anything that looks remotely close to any kind of campaign that we would see in a general election?” Thomas said. “The answer is no.”

She argues the lack of a clear, public campaign reflects the divisions within the UCP itself.

“I think it’s because it would break the party if they actually had a campaign on it,” Thomas said.

“Because those divisions would be clear and public, and they’d fight about it.”

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One former Conservative premier of Alberta, Jason Kenney hopes that debates and federalist rallies will encourage people less likely to vote to cast their ballot in Monday’s referendum.

“I hope that gets what we call low propensity voters, people less likely to vote to get out on Monday,” Jason Kenney said in a Friday in an interview with CTV News Channel.

He added that it was important as a “democratic exercise,” but also that “the higher the turnout, the higher the vote for Canada.”

However, Kenney did admit that rallies could negatively impact a separation vote. He cited his conversations with insider federalists on the 1995 Quebec independence referendum.

“The consensus is that it was probably net unhelpful. Actually, Marc-Andre Blanchard, (Prime Minister Mark Carney’s) chief of staff, was a big organizer in the ‘No’ campaign,” Kenney said. “He told me that he thought it was counterproductive.”

“They probably lost a point or two after that … it was a razor thin edge that kept Quebec in Canada that night.”
Kenney said that too much out-of-province pressure felt like the rest of the country “butting their nose into Quebec’s business, telling them what to do.”

Smith said that although she and Carney often disagree publicly on several issues, the two agree on Question 10 of the referendum ballot: “We are voting for option one to remain in Canada.”

Smith said that despite being skeptical of Carney when he first took office, their relationship has yielded some “real change” over the past 18 months and will only get “better from here.”

The Alberta premier identified what she called “seven out of nine bad laws” that she and Carney have worked to address. She also pointed to the Pacific Link pipeline, high-speed rail, water and housing deals, defence agreements and judges recently appointed to the province’s high courts.

Smith emphasized that when Canada and Alberta work together in areas where they agree, both are stronger.
“I think that this is now a time, a moment in Canadian history, where we are going to be able to work side-by-side. I feel for the first time in a long time, Alberta and Canada are walking together,” she added.

Carney greeted supporters at a rally in Red Deer, Alta., on Friday with handshakes and smiles alongside Premier Smith.

The two sang “O Canada” with the crowd before Carney took the microphone to deliver remarks about lessons he’s learned from working collaboratively with Smith and the province.

“We have real threats to our sovereignty that come both physically, and those are growing over time, but also virtually, and we know what those are, and we have to stand up and meet them,” he told the crowd.

Carney reminded the Albertans to head to the polls Monday to stand up for Canada.

“Let's move forward together. Because we, as a country, are just getting started now,” he added.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre shared a message with Albertans ahead of Monday’s referendum vote: “Don't leave your fellow Canadians behind. Lock arms with them.”

Poilievre, a Calgarian himself, delivered a lengthy speech at the Canada Strong and Free conference in Calgary on Friday, telling the crowd that “quitting is the easy way out, and Albertans are not quitters.”

“We don't walk away. We stand and fight for what we believe in, and we reflect upon all that we have.”

He went on to emphasize that while it's easy to focus on the flaws of the country, Albertans should remember that Canada has allowed the province the freedom to fulfill its potential and become at times “the richest place anywhere on Earth.”

A University of Calgary professor says the Canada-Alberta pipeline agreement signed by Smith and Carney in November 2025 is a “parchment sign,” saying it was “almost meaningless.”
“The amount of preliminary work that has to be done before there is anybody digging a trench to put some pipe in, is just enormous,” Barry Cooper told BNN Bloomberg on Friday. “I don't think many people here actually rely on that MOU.”
Cooper said even if the vote is rejected, the issue surrounding separation is “not going away” because the problems between Canada and Alberta are “structural.”
He says he doesn’t see Canada "ever wanting to negotiate” with Alberta, referring to the separation debate.
“I don't see that it's part of their DNA, just as it's part of the DNA of a political DNA of Albertans to object to it,” Cooper said. 

A former Alberta deputy premier says Albertans do not want the referendum.
Albertans want to prove that they “will not be the weak link in Confederation,” Thomas Lukaszuk, founder of Forever Canadian, a provincial pro-unity movement, told CTV News Channel.
He referenced polls that showed 80 per cent of respondents want “nothing to do with the referendum.”
“We simply got caught up in a political gamesmanship served to us by the current provincial government,” he said.
Residents want to move on and focus on issues like healthcare, education, national security.
“These referendum questions are a distraction,” he described, “... and they have been very damaging.” 

The number of ballots cast in Alberta’s referendum surpassed one million on Thursday.

That was after 174,500 votes were cast on the first day of advanced polls on Tuesday, 186,700 votes were cast on Wednesday, and 168,200 votes were cast on Thursday, for a total of 529,400 votes over three days of advance polls.

Additionally, some 491,000 special ballots have already been processed, pushing the grand total of cast referendum ballots to 1.02 million — or one third of Alberta’s roughly three million eligible voters.

Speaking to a crowd of Albertans on Thursday, Carney joked about comments from U.S. ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, warning Canadian politicians against political interference  in U.S. midterms.

During the pro-Canada rally, Carney was met with loud cheers and applause after telling the audience that the Pacific Link pipeline will create more than 140,000 jobs and reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S.

“Careful! Careful!” Carney said with a smile, “they might think that's election Interference. Just saying.”

“They're a little touchy down there. We're not. We're getting on with it,” he joked.

His response came days after Hoekstra in an interview with “The Really Big Show” podcast, suggested the actions of several Canadian politicians, including Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, could amount to interference in close American races just weeks before the crucial midterm elections.

A former Conservative MP says he expects the party leader’s keynote speech at the Canada Strong and Free Conference to echo what the prime minister delivered the night before.

“This is the final in what has been a series of unity speeches that Pierre has made in this province,” Damien Kurek, principal with Upstream Strategy Group, a public relations group. 

He said he expected Poilievre to repeat Prime Minister Mark Carney’s acknowledgement of how past policies have set Albertans against the rest of the country.

“Representing a Alberta riding, he understands and hears from folks on the ground what those frustrations are,” he said.

“... It then creates the framework that is possible to say, look, the federation can in fact work,” he said.