(Bloomberg) -- Senator Kamala Harris is trouncing all rivals in the competition for cash from California’s deep-pocketed donors, but that’s no guarantee she’ll secure the victory she needs in her home state to land the Democratic presidential nomination.

One April poll showed Harris lagging former Vice President Joe Biden, and she lost a key endorsement this month when California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, said she would support Biden. Some top Democrats, including Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, are waiting to see how the primary battle plays out before showing their hand.

She also faces steep competition from other presidential candidates for the state, which controls more delegates toward nomination than any other. Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker have all visited for fundraisers or campaign events.

Harris has built-in advantages: She has been elected to statewide office three times. But the prize is so important to her, she has no margin for error. She is far behind Biden and Sanders in national polls, and a loss in her home state could severely damage her presidential prospects.

No Cakewalk

She is under no illusions that winning the March 3 primary will be a cakewalk, said a campaign aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But her supporters are confident she will prevail.

“Ultimately, when all the candidates are side-by-side at a debate, Californians will see in Kamala what they love about the state,” said Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, a Democrat who supports Harris. “Having name recognition isn’t as important as having a committed group of supporters who already know her. She is seriously advantaged by having that base.”

That’s not Harris’ only asset. She has cash, too.

California is a notoriously expensive place to compete, and she dominated state fundraising in the first three months of the year, bringing in almost $4.4 million -- more than four times as much as any other Democratic candidate. She raised $12 million nationally during the period, second to Sanders.

More than 95 California-based bundlers, whose networks can give hundreds of thousands of dollars to a candidate, contributed to Harris’ campaign, Federal Election Commission records show. Booker scored donations from 32 of these fundraisers, making him the second-biggest recipient.

In recent weeks, Biden and Buttigieg have held fundraisers in the state, which has long been a top source of donations for Democratic candidates. With so many running, bundlers have been playing the field. Almost a quarter of those who gave to Harris also contributed to at least one other Democratic candidate.

Lawyers’ Support

Harris, who served as the state attorney general for two terms, has her biggest base of support among lawyers and law firms. They’ve given her about $771,000, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics, accounting for about 10% of her itemized donations. The entertainment industry was second, at $307,000. Technology firm employees gave her just $62,000. Harris has called for regulating Facebook Inc. and said the social media giant might need to be broken up.

California State Treasurer Fiona Ma, a Democrat, held a May 11 fundraising event for Harris at a rooftop restaurant in downtown Los Angeles, where the largely Asian-American crowd donated a total of about $100,000, Ma said. Harris should press her advantage, she said, in part by doing more events in the Asian-American community, both in California and nationally.

“I don’t think people know she’s half Indo-American,” Ma said in an interview. “When you tell people that, they get excited.”

Ma also encouraged Harris to continue her escalating broadsides against President Donald Trump, which in recent weeks have included criticism of his attacks on communities of color and warnings about the rise of "authoritarianism" in the U.S.

‘Want a Leader’

“It plays well to the base,” Ma said. “Democrats want that. They want a leader.”

There have been no public polls since Biden entered the race. But a Quinnipiac University survey in April showed Harris had support from just 17% of Golden State Democrats, trailing Biden at 26% and Sanders at 18%.

Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who succeeded Harris as California’s attorney general, said he thinks Harris will be tough to beat in the state. Her strength in the state could propel her campaign nationally, Becerra said.

“She raised a good chunk of money; that’s got to help her stay in the mix,” Becerra said in an interview. “I suspect this is the strategy; keep California and do well in some of the southern states and any states where there’s a large African-American vote in the primaries. She is in play, even if she may not be perceived nationally in these polls as the one to beat.”

Lisa Garcia Bedolla, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, said the early national polls may not accurately reflect Harris’ potential strength because they tend to emphasize name recognition, and Biden and Sanders are better-known, even in California.

“Biden and Sanders also have higher negatives than any other candidates, because more people know who they are and have opinions about them,” Bedolla said. Harris’ support comes from "those already paying attention to the race, which are her donors and a very small percentage of the electorate."

‘Avoid the Negatives’

"I think that is potentially more important at this stage, particularly since she gets to introduce herself to folks and potentially avoid the negatives that Biden and Sanders already have,” Bedolla said.

That may be challenging. State surveys in early primary contests have been closely tracking the national poll averages, said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. That’s diminishing the home state advantage a candidate could normally expect. "It’s a nationalized campaign," he said.

A change in the voting calendar could also prove crucial. California’s primary election is moving back into the so-called Super Tuesday round of voting next year, joining at least 13 other states on March 3 after votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Those contests could have an impact on Harris’ fortunes on her home turf.

"If Harris is not winning in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, it’s going to be harder for her in California,” Grossmann said.

Harris will have a chance to press her case for the presidential nomination along with Sanders, Buttigieg and other candidates at the California Democratic Party Organizing Convention that begins May 31 in San Francisco.

“I’m going to fight to earn every vote I can get, everywhere in the country, including my home state,” Harris said in an interview after a May 9 event in San Francisco. “I’m honored to have been elected by the people of California three separate times statewide, so I’m going to ask them again for their support.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeffrey Taylor in San Francisco at jtaylor48@bloomberg.net;Bill Allison in Washington at ballison14@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Max Berley, Laurie Asséo

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