The sharp deterioration in Canadian household sentiment continued into last week, as escalating trade friction with the U.S. fuels anxiety about the prospects for the economy.

  • The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence index ended June at 54.9, the lowest end-of-month score since March 2016
  • The index in June is down 6.2 per cent from a year ago, the largest year-over-year decline since September 2015
  • Every week, Nanos Research asks 250 Canadians for their views on personal finances, job security, the outlook for the economy and where real estate prices are headed. Bloomberg publishes four-week rolling averages of the 1,000 telephone responses. A composite indicator -- the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index -- is also calculated from the rolling averages of the four questions
  • The percentage of Canadians giving the most pessimistic responses jumped to 21.6 per cent -- the highest since March 2016 -- versus 18.7 per cent at the end of May and 14.2 per cent at the end of 2017
  • While all four questions have recorded a deterioration in sentiment over the past month, the biggest drop has been in the outlook for the economy
    • The share of Canadians who say they expect the economy to get stronger over the next six months was at 13.4 per cent at the end of June, the lowest end-of-month reading since August 2015. The share of Canadians who see the economy weakening jumped to 41.3 per cent, the highest since January 2016
  • Sentiment on real estate prices, personal finances and job security have come down a bit over the past month, but remain in line with historical averages
    • 66.2 per cent of Canadians say their jobs are at least somewhat secure, with 10.8 per cent saying they are insecure
    • 40.2 per cent of Canadians expect to see real estate prices higher over the next six months, with 11.9 per cent predicting declines
    • 18 percent of Canadians say they believe their personal finances have been improving, with 26.8 percent reporting worsening finances (negative responses for this question typically outnumber positive responses)