One of Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s top economic advisers is warning of significant downside risk for the Canadian dollar. In an interview on BNN, Starfort Investment Holdings Chairman Ken Courtis said much stronger U.S. growth will spur Janet Yellen’s U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates at a faster pace, sending the greenback surging and depressing the loonie’s value.

“My ultimate mid-term target for the Canadian dollar is 62 cents,” he said Tuesday. “We will see over the next 18 months, through to 2018, the Canadian dollar go well into the mid-60s and below.”

Courtis said the Bank of Canada would be reluctant to follow the Fed’s lead in raising rates despite an acceleration of growth, as overleveraged, house-poor Canadians keep Stephen Poloz from quickly hiking borrowing costs.

“Canadian households have the highest debt levels relative to income ever, and as interest rates go up, obviously mortgage rates will be adjusted and that will be a very big hit on households,” he said. “That would push down consumer spending, which would then tend to weaken the economy. This is not going to be an easy transition in the next 18 months.”

However, Courtis, who has a seat at the table with Morneau’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth, said there could be an offsetting effect from the former bastion of the domestic economy, as a lower loonie would help mitigate the impact of any border adjustment tax hitting the energy sector.

“In the context of a U.S. border tax and U.S. energy independence policy, [the lower Canadian dollar] would be good for our energy producers, because it will allow them, de facto to cut their costs,” he said. “That would help the economy as we get through this pressure.”