(Bloomberg) -- Chicago is spending more than ever on police, yet crime is on the rise and many residents say they feel unsafe.
That conundrum is emerging as a key issue as Chicagoans head to the polls Tuesday with Mayor Lori Lightfoot and eight other candidates on the ballot. They’re grappling with how to boost the number of cops — down 12% since 2019, when Lightfoot was elected — without spending more or disappointing voters worried by police brutality against Black residents.
“What it’s going to come down to is the issue of crime,” said Jaime Dominguez, an associate professor of political science at Northwestern University. “Lightfoot, she’s going to have to really address that, and it’s going to be a challenge for her.”
If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the top two will face each other in a runoff on April 4.
Chicago, the nation’s third-largest city, is faced with rising violence that’s sparked outrage among residents and business leaders. While the city’s police budget ballooned 17% from 2019 to a record $1.9 billion for 2023, crime incidents jumped 41% last year and have increased 33% since 2019.
A recent poll funded by Northwestern University and a coalition of Black and Latino nonprofits showed that crime is the biggest issue for 57% of voters, followed by inflation and the cost of living.
The poll also showed Lightfoot with 14% of the vote, behind former Chicago Public Schools Chief Executive Officer Paul Vallas with 19%, and US Representative Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia with 17%. The poll, which interviewed 643 voters between Feb. 5-10, has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
If Lightfoot fails to make the runoff, “the storyline would certainly be the crime surge cost her,” said John Mark Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
Violence has also been an issue for business, with top executives saying crime has made it difficult for them to attract and retain talent.
Much of the debate around crime has been centered on police staffing. The number of officers has dropped by about 1,500 since 2019, according to the Office of the Inspector General, as the pandemic sparked a wave of retirements. Meanwhile, the police budget rose an average of 4% each year in the period as a tight labor market boosted salaries and more overtime was paid to compensate for fewer officers.
Recruiting isn’t just a challenge in Chicago. Departments across the US have been hit by the labor market crunch as workers sought more flexibility, better pay and greater work-life balance. Public sentiment toward law enforcement also deteriorated following the 2020 murder of George Floyd.
“Oftentimes, when we have a conversation around public safety and what we need to do, the immediate response is ‘we need more police,’” said Mecole Jordan-Mcbride, advocacy director at the Chicago Neighborhood Policing Initiative, a nonprofit focused on bringing the community and police together. “That might be true on some circumstances, but we also need more programs and other things that come together to create a safe community.”
In a Jan. 31 interview with Bloomberg, Lightfoot pledged to return police staffing to 13,000 officers from 11,710 now and said she would “never defund” the agency. She touted her work to address the root causes of violence with projects like Invest South/West, a $2 billion development program dedicated to lower-income neighborhoods.
Dangerous People
But the mayor also added that the city’s biggest threat is illegal guns coming from states like Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan, and called on courts to keep criminals off the streets.
“There are too many violent, dangerous people walking the streets of our city pretrial, charged with murder, attempted murder, carjackings and kidnap, rape — a long list,” Lightfoot said. “They have a long history of being engaged in violent crimes, and for some reason, too many of our judges in the courts think it’s a good idea to get these people back out on the street in the same community with an ankle bracelet when we all know nobody is monitoring.”
Front-runner Vallas has pledged to boost the ranks, overhaul a scheduling system that’s prompted burnout and give officers local beats to better connect with communities. He has earned the support of many business leaders, with Citadel Chief Operating Officer Gerald Beeson recently inviting him to speak at a private function at the hedge fund’s building, according to a person familiar with the event.
But Vallas has also come under fire after Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a likely 2024 presidential candidate, gave a speech to the Fraternal Order of the Police, a union that endorsed the former CPS head.
Garcia also plans to increase police staffing levels and street patrols. And he pledged to replace Superintendent David Brown as head of the police department.
Chicago’s crime challenges are rooted in decades-old divides that make it one of the most segregated cities in America. Black and Hispanic residents are primarily in neighborhoods on the city’s south and west sides, where unemployment rates are higher. Jennifer Ritter, executive director of the community organization ONE Northside, said crime has to be addressed “holistically” and not with the usual and counterproductive law-and-order approach.
“Mass incarceration has really hurt people, and that’s not what we’re looking at here, but figuring out how to really impact poverty and the root causes of safety,” Ritter said.
--With assistance from Jose Orozco.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
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