(Bloomberg) -- One of the best performers in a red-hot commodity market may be headed for a speedbump.

The International Copper Study Group said on Monday that supply of the metal will exceed demand this year and next, countering expectations for tightening supplies that have driven the metal close to a record high.

“This assessment of the ICSG contrasts sharply with those of many other market participants, who envisage another seriously undersupplied copper market this year,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a note Tuesday. “If the ICSG turns out to be right, the high copper price would not be justified from a fundamental perspective and should be noticeably lower.”

Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and trading houses such as Trafigura Group have forecast prices will push beyond a 2011 record high as soaring demand drives the market into deepening production deficits.

But the ICSG predicts consumption of the metal will be little changed this year while mine supplies rise. The group estimates that the global refined copper surplus will reach 110,000 tons in 2022 from about 80,000 tons in 2021. That compares with a 2020 deficit of about 600,000 tons.

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