(Bloomberg) -- The mortality rate from the coronavirus in China is estimated at 1%, according to a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as severe ones. The death toll from the outbreak climbed above 1,000.
Britain reported four more cases; authorities there warned of an imminent threat to public health and tightened quarantine rules. Globally, more than 42,000 have been infected.
- BREAKING: China death toll at least 1,011; Hubei province adds 103 fatalities
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Bloomberg is tracking the outbreak on the terminal and online
Hubei Reports 103 Additional Deaths (6:05 a.m. HK)
Hubei, the province at the center of the outbreak, reported 103 additional deaths for Feb. 10, bringing the global death toll to at least 1,013.
Hubei reported 2,097 more confirmed cases, the smallest daily increase since Feb. 1. The province has a total of 31,728 confirmed cases.
Most cases and deaths in China are in the province of Hubei. Large parts of the province have been cut off from the rest of China since the government started imposing a quarantine on Jan. 23 to try and stop the spread of the virus.
Canada Predicts Significant Impact From Virus (12:14 p.m. NY)
Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned the spread of the coronavirus is likely to have a “real” impact on Canada’s economy.
At a breakfast speech in Calgary, Morneau said the deadly viral outbreak that began in China is expected to have a significant effect on global growth that will spill into Canada as it disrupts tourism and supply chains, and lowers commodity prices. He said oil prices have fallen 15% as a result of reduced demand, for example.
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Ford Reopens China Plants (11:30 a.m. NY)
Ford Motor Co. has resumed production at its Chinese plants, a spokesman said.
The U.S. automaker is working with its supplier partners, some of which are located in Hubei province, to assess and plan for parts supply, according to Anderson Chan, a spokesman.
Ford was among the major automakers that halted production at China plants late last month as the government extended the traditional Lunar New Year holiday by a week.
Tesla Inc. also reopened its plant near Shanghai on Monday.
Carnival Cruise Finally Finds a Port (11:30 a.m. NY)
Carnival Corp.’s Holland America Line appears to have finally found a port for its Westerdam cruise ship to disembark after reports of coronavirus on board prompted various jurisdictions to turn it away. Holland America said the reports were unfounded, but the ship has been denied debarking in Manila, Guam, and effectively from various ports in Japan.
The two-week cruise that left from Hong Kong was able to call in only one port -- Kaohsiung, Taiwan -- and authorities there cut off access part of the way through its visit. The cruise will end in Laem Chabang, Thailand, on Thursday, and guests will receive a full refund and a future cruise credit, Holland America said Monday.
NTT Docomo Pulls Out of Mobile Conference (10:55 a.m.)
Japanese carrier NTT Docomo Inc. became the latest company to pull out of the mobile industry’s most important annual gathering because of the coronavirus. Ericsson AB, Amazon.com Inc., Nvidia Corp. and Sony Corp. have already said they won’t attend MWC Barcelona, while others have reduced their presence. The biggest participants spend millions of dollars to exhibit -- money they stand to lose if they scrap their plans.
New Estimate Puts Virus Death Rate at 1% (10:37 a.m. NY)
The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the center of the outbreak in China.
Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.
“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.
The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.
Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.
The U.K. researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multiweek time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.
Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan. 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.
Toymaker: Closing May Hurt Holiday Sales (10:15 a.m. NY)
The CEO of one the world’s largest toymakers said many of its largest Chinese suppliers remain shuttered because of the coronavirus outbreak, with some pushing reopening dates back to the end of next month.
“It’s bad,” said Isaac Larian, who also founded closely held MGA Entertainment Inc. “People don’t realize. This won’t just affect the toy business; it’s going to have a major economic effect worldwide.”
While the idled factories haven’t had a major impact on MGA so far, prolonged closings could delay orders for the holiday-shopping season, according to Larian. China is by far the biggest maker of toys, with the industry’s hub in Shenzhen, and February and March is when factories do the bulk of production for Christmas goods that hit shelves beginning in late October.
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