(Bloomberg) -- Oil could drop below $60 a barrel in New York next year, with a “material rise” in supply surpluses even as OPEC+ is likely to delay a planned production increases until April, according to Deutsche Bank.

“It would be misguided to think of an OPEC pause on Thursday as bullish, since we have assumed that in our model and still end up with a surplus in Q1,” analysts including Michael Hsueh wrote in a note Tuesday. “We would be sellers of a rally in crude on the back of an OPEC pause.”

The group previously agreed to boost output by 400,000 barrels a day in every month in their last few meetings. OPEC+ is due to meet virtually on Thursday, when they will decide their output target for January.

On the demand side, the bank sees healthy growth with oil demand back to 2019 levels by the end of next year.  

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.